From narratives to numbers: Spatial downscaling and quantification of future water, food &amp; energy security requirements in the Indus basin

Smolenaars, Wouter; Lutz, Arthur; Biemans, Hester; Dhaubanjar, Sanita; Immerzeel, Walter W.; Ludwig, Fulco

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2021.102831

Cited by 13 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…The UIB is already considered one of the most water stressed water towers in the world (Immerzeel et al., 2020; Pritchard, 2019). The gap between the supply and demand of water for various uses may worsen with socioeconomic and climate change (Smolenaars et al., 2021). With this perspective, some key questions focused on the identification of water management practices for the UIB, for now, and in the future, are highlighted here. …”

Section: Governance Policy and Sustainable Solutionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The impacts of climate change in UIB on hydrological systems are having grave implications for water availability, agricultural yields, hydroelectric power generation, and ecosystem services (Garee et al., 2017; Smolenaars et al., 2021; Zhang et al., 2007). In addition, the adverse effects of extreme weather and climatic events (such as the terrible 2010 flooding in Gilgit‐Baltistan, Pakistan) on the life, assets, and livelihood of communities in the region are also coming to the fore (Mishra et al., 2019; Shrestha et al., 2021).…”

Section: Governance Policy and Sustainable Solutionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Policies and water management practices in the region have, so far, consistently emphasized increasing the supply of water to the various users, irrespective of the financial, social, or environmental costs. This has resulted in the UIB being particularly vulnerable to water stress, which is likely to worsen in the future (Immerzeel et al., 2020; Smolenaars et al., 2021), with knock‐on effects on the ecosystems and communities that depend on them. At the same time, global climate change is likely to result in considerable (yet poorly quantified) changes to the seasonality and composition of runoff in the future, which are likely to have considerable impacts on the regional hydrologic regime and water supplies (Dahri, Ludwig, Moors, Ahmad, et al., 2021; Immerzeel et al., 2013; Krishnan et al., 2019; Lutz et al., 2014, 2016; Sabin et al., 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Knowledge Priorities on Climate Change and Water in the Upper Indus Basin: A Horizon Scanning Exercise to Identify the Top 100 Research Questions in Social and Natural Sciences

et al. 2022

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River systems originating from the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) are dominated by runoff from snow and glacier melt and summer monsoonal rainfall. These water resources are highly stressed as huge populations of people living in this region depend on them, including for agriculture, domestic use, and energy production. Projections suggest that the UIB region will be affected by considerable (yet poorly quantified) changes to the seasonality and composition of runoff in the future, which are likely to have considerable impacts on these supplies. Given how directly and indirectly communities and ecosystems are dependent on these resources and the growing pressure on them due to ever‐increasing demands, the impacts of climate change pose considerable adaptation challenges. The strong linkages between hydroclimate, cryosphere, water resources, and human activities within the UIB suggest that a multi‐ and inter‐disciplinary research approach integrating the social and natural/environmental sciences is critical for successful adaptation to ongoing and future hydrological and climate change. Here we use a horizon scanning technique to identify the Top 100 questions related to the most pressing knowledge gaps and research priorities in social and natural sciences on climate change and water in the UIB. These questions are on the margins of current thinking and investigation and are clustered into 14 themes, covering three overarching topics of “governance, policy, and sustainable solutions”, “socioeconomic processes and livelihoods”, and “integrated Earth System processes”. Raising awareness of these cutting‐edge knowledge gaps and opportunities will hopefully encourage researchers, funding bodies, practitioners, and policy makers to address them.

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Section: Governance Policy and Sustainable Solutionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Governance Policy and Sustainable Solutionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Knowledge Priorities on Climate Change and Water in the Upper Indus Basin: A Horizon Scanning Exercise to Identify the Top 100 Research Questions in Social and Natural Sciences

et al. 2022

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The UIB is already considered one of the most water stressed water towers in the world (Immerzeel et al, 2020;Pritchard, 2019). The gap between the supply and demand of water for various uses may worsen with socioeconomic and climate change (Smolenaars et al, 2021). With this perspective, some key questions focused on the identification of water management practices for the UIB, for now, and in the future, are highlighted here.…”

Section: Water Resources Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The impacts of climate change in UIB on hydrological systems are having grave implications for water availability, agricultural yields, hydroelectric power generation, and ecosystem services (Garee et al, 2017;Smolenaars et al, 2021;Zhang et al, 2007). In addition, the adverse effects of extreme weather and climatic events (such as the terrible 2010 flooding in Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan) on the life, assets, and livelihood of communities in the region are also coming to the fore (Mishra et al, 2019;Shrestha et al, 2021).…”

Section: Adaptationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Knowledge Priorities on Climate Change and Water in the Upper Indus Basin: A Horizon Scanning Exercise to Identify the Top 100 Research Questions in Social and Natural Sciences

Orr

Bolch

Dhaubanjar

et al. 2022

Preprint

Self Cite

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River systems originating from the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) are dominated by runoff from snow and glacier melt and summer monsoonal rainfall. These water resources are highly stressed as huge populations of people living in this region depend on them, including for agriculture, domestic use, and energy production. Projections suggest that the UIB region will be affected by considerable (yet poorly quantified) changes to the seasonality and composition of runoff in the future, which are likely to have considerable impacts on these supplies. Given how directly and indirectly communities and ecosystems are dependent on these resources and the growing pressure on them due to ever-increasing demands, the impacts of climate change pose considerable adaptation challenges. The strong linkages between hydroclimate, cryosphere, water resources, and human activities within the UIB suggest that a multi-and inter-disciplinary research approach integrating the social and natural/environmental sciences is critical for successful adaptation to ongoing and future hydrological and climate change. Here we use a horizon scanning technique to identify the Top 100 questions related to the most pressing knowledge gaps and research priorities in social and natural sciences on climate change and water in the UIB. These questions are on the margins of current thinking and investigation and are clustered into 14 themes, covering three overarching topics of "governance, policy, and sustainable solutions", "socioeconomic processes and livelihoods", and "integrated Earth System processes". Raising awareness of these cutting-edge ORR ET AL.

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Exploring the potential of agricultural system change as an integrated adaptation strategy for water and food security in the Indus basin

Smolenaars

Jamil

Dhaubanjar

et al. 2023

Environ Dev Sustain

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Water security and food security in the Indus basin are highly interlinked and subject to severe stresses. Irrigation water demands presently already exceed what the basin can sustainably provide, but per-capita food availability remains limited. Rapid population growth and climate change are projected to further intensify pressure on the interdependencies between water and food security. The agricultural system of the Indus basin must therefore change and adapt to be able to achieve the associated Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The development of robust policies to guide such changes requires a thorough understanding of the synergies and trade-offs that different strategies for agricultural development may have for water and food security. In this study, we defined three contrasting trajectories for agricultural system change based on a review of scientific literature on regional agricultural developments and a stakeholder consultation workshop. We assessed the consequences of these trajectories for water and food security with a spatially explicit modeling framework for two scenarios of climatic and socio-economic change over the period 1980–2080. Our results demonstrate that agricultural system changes can ensure per capita food production in the basin remains sufficient under population growth. However, such changes require additional irrigation water resources and may strongly aggravate water stress. Conversely, a shift to sustainable water management can reduce water stress but has the consequence that basin-level food self-sufficiency may not be feasible in future. This suggests that biophysical limits likely exist that prevent agricultural system changes to ensure both sufficient food production and improve water security in the Indus basin under strong population growth. Our study concludes that agricultural system changes are an important adaptation mechanism toward achieving water and food SDGs, but must be developed alongside other strategies that can mitigate its adverse trade-offs.

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From narratives to numbers: Spatial downscaling and quantification of future water, food & energy security requirements in the Indus basin

Cited by 13 publications

References 46 publications

Knowledge Priorities on Climate Change and Water in the Upper Indus Basin: A Horizon Scanning Exercise to Identify the Top 100 Research Questions in Social and Natural Sciences

Knowledge Priorities on Climate Change and Water in the Upper Indus Basin: A Horizon Scanning Exercise to Identify the Top 100 Research Questions in Social and Natural Sciences

Knowledge Priorities on Climate Change and Water in the Upper Indus Basin: A Horizon Scanning Exercise to Identify the Top 100 Research Questions in Social and Natural Sciences

Exploring the potential of agricultural system change as an integrated adaptation strategy for water and food security in the Indus basin

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