From Low-Cost Flights to the Ballot Box: How Eastern European Migration Shaped Far-Right Voting in London

Abstract

We examine patterns of migration and far-right voting in London following the Eastern enlargement of the European Union in 2004 and 2007. To address immigrant sorting, we draw on transport and geography scholarship about migration to develop an instrumental variable approach. Our dataset combines ward-level election and census information with geo-referenced data on pre-existing bus stops providing access to low-cost flight connections with the new EU states. We estimate a large positive effect of Eastern European migration on changes in support for anti-immigrant parties between the 2004 and 2012 London Assembly elections.Our analysis suggests concerns about affordable housing were a channel through which this migration affected support for the populist right, but not the main fascist party. Our study highlights the utility of distinguishing different migrants and far-right parties; contributes evidence from Britain on how migration affects local elections; and offers a methodological alternative to the shift-share instrument.