Abstract:Abstract:In pursuit of the drastic transformations necessary for effectively responding to climate change, the Paris Agreement stresses the need to design and implement sustainable, robust, and socially acceptable policy pathways in a globally coordinated and cooperative manner. For decades, the scientific community has been carrying out quantitative modelling exercises in support of climate policy design, primarily by means of energy systems and integrated assessment modelling frameworks. Here, we describe in… Show more
“…We also miss spatial dynamics in modelling biomass sustainability (Ghilardi et al 2016), and therefore probably underestimate forest degradation in areas with relatively high demand and overestimate it in areas with low demand for biomass resources. Despite these shortcomings, we would argue that the global findings of this study as well as the innovative methodology used, which is aligned with emerging scientific paradigms (Doukas et al 2018), will be of interest for a range of local and global policymakers in the context of sustainable development and climate finance.…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Given the heterogeneous mix of policy objectives in the SSA context, and the high implicit uncertainty for policymaking caused by the wide range of possible development scenarios in the region, integrated and robust policy analysis is required for designing policies that take advantage of identified synergies between different SDGs, independent of the socioeconomic development of the region (Collste et al 2017, Doukas et al 2018, Duan et al 2018, Mainali et al 2018. In regions where the lack of access to modern energy sources and consequential high dependence on unsustainably harvested traditional biomass are major causes of GHG emissions and premature mortality, the implementation and impacts of policies such as carbon taxing are not straightforward and, instead, land policies and subsidies for cleaner energy technologies will constitute effective policy instruments for sustainable development (Mohammed et al 2015, Cameron et al 2016, Schwerhoff and Sy 2017.…”
Heavy reliance on traditional biomass for household energy in eastern Africa has significant negative health and environmental impacts. The African context for energy access is rather different from historical experiences elsewhere as challenges in achieving energy access have coincided with major climate ambitions. Policies focusing on household energy needs in eastern Africa contribute to at least three sustainable development goals (SDGs): climate action, good health, and improved energy access. This study uses an integrated assessment model to simulate the impact of land policies and technology subsidies, as well as the interaction of both, on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, exposure to air pollution and energy access in eastern Africa under a range of socioeconomic pathways. We find that land policies focusing on increasing the sustainable output of biomass resources can reduce GHG emissions in the region by about 10%, but also slightly delay progress in health and energy access goals. An optimised portfolio of energy technology subsidies consistent with a global Green Climate Funds budget of 30–35 billion dollar, can yield another 10% savings in GHG emissions, while decreasing mortality related to air pollution by 20%, and improving energy access by up to 15%. After 2030, both land and technology policies become less effective, and more dependent on the overall development path of the region. The analysis shows that support for biogas technology should be prioritised in both the short and long term, while financing liquefied petroleum gas and ethanol technologies also has synergetic climate, health and energy access benefits. Instead, financing PV technologies is mostly relevant for improving energy access, while charcoal and to a lesser extend fuelwood technologies are relevant for curbing GHG emissions if their finance is linked to land policies. We suggest that integrated policy analysis is needed in the African context for simultaneously reaching progress in multiple SDGs.
“…We also miss spatial dynamics in modelling biomass sustainability (Ghilardi et al 2016), and therefore probably underestimate forest degradation in areas with relatively high demand and overestimate it in areas with low demand for biomass resources. Despite these shortcomings, we would argue that the global findings of this study as well as the innovative methodology used, which is aligned with emerging scientific paradigms (Doukas et al 2018), will be of interest for a range of local and global policymakers in the context of sustainable development and climate finance.…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Given the heterogeneous mix of policy objectives in the SSA context, and the high implicit uncertainty for policymaking caused by the wide range of possible development scenarios in the region, integrated and robust policy analysis is required for designing policies that take advantage of identified synergies between different SDGs, independent of the socioeconomic development of the region (Collste et al 2017, Doukas et al 2018, Duan et al 2018, Mainali et al 2018. In regions where the lack of access to modern energy sources and consequential high dependence on unsustainably harvested traditional biomass are major causes of GHG emissions and premature mortality, the implementation and impacts of policies such as carbon taxing are not straightforward and, instead, land policies and subsidies for cleaner energy technologies will constitute effective policy instruments for sustainable development (Mohammed et al 2015, Cameron et al 2016, Schwerhoff and Sy 2017.…”
Heavy reliance on traditional biomass for household energy in eastern Africa has significant negative health and environmental impacts. The African context for energy access is rather different from historical experiences elsewhere as challenges in achieving energy access have coincided with major climate ambitions. Policies focusing on household energy needs in eastern Africa contribute to at least three sustainable development goals (SDGs): climate action, good health, and improved energy access. This study uses an integrated assessment model to simulate the impact of land policies and technology subsidies, as well as the interaction of both, on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, exposure to air pollution and energy access in eastern Africa under a range of socioeconomic pathways. We find that land policies focusing on increasing the sustainable output of biomass resources can reduce GHG emissions in the region by about 10%, but also slightly delay progress in health and energy access goals. An optimised portfolio of energy technology subsidies consistent with a global Green Climate Funds budget of 30–35 billion dollar, can yield another 10% savings in GHG emissions, while decreasing mortality related to air pollution by 20%, and improving energy access by up to 15%. After 2030, both land and technology policies become less effective, and more dependent on the overall development path of the region. The analysis shows that support for biogas technology should be prioritised in both the short and long term, while financing liquefied petroleum gas and ethanol technologies also has synergetic climate, health and energy access benefits. Instead, financing PV technologies is mostly relevant for improving energy access, while charcoal and to a lesser extend fuelwood technologies are relevant for curbing GHG emissions if their finance is linked to land policies. We suggest that integrated policy analysis is needed in the African context for simultaneously reaching progress in multiple SDGs.
“…Nevertheless, our work can help in the search for patterns underlying social developments. It sheds light on the "human factor" in decarbonisation pathways [56]. In the academic sphere, these insights can inform and complement other ways of knowledge generation in the field of decarbonisation processes [34,57].…”
Climate change has made urban decarbonisation a global imperative. Cities are both a source of emissions and a leverage-point for the necessary transformation processes. Iceland is blessed with an ample supply of renewable energy sources. Hydropower and geothermal are widespread in the country and they dominate the country’s electricity and district heating systems. Despite this huge potential, per capita emissions in Iceland are still way above levels required to meet the 2 degrees target. This is because decarbonisation processes have, so far, fallen short of addressing emissions from sectors such as waste and transportation. Against this background, this paper investigates the low carbon transition in the northern Icelandic municipality of Akureyri. With roughly 18,000 inhabitants, the town of Akureyri is the biggest urban centre in the north of the country. Here, a number of key actors have initiated an ambitious urban transformation process of local carbon flows. Based on 19 semi-structured interviews, we analysed the role of key actors and their resources and strategies. To better explore the transition’s underlying mechanisms, we analysed the dynamics through the lens of the multi-level perspective (MLP), applied in a descriptive context. We found that a key factor for success of the urban transition was a strategy that integrated several previously disconnected carbon flows of the community. Important success factors were close community connections, public-private partnerships, the enthusiasm of multiple individuals who drove the process, the establishment of a strong intermediary organisation, and stable political support. The case can teach us about the challenges of transitions that integrate disconnected carbon flows in an urban context. Furthermore, it provides valuable findings on the role intermediary organisations play in these processes.
“…Moreover, for these models it is more difficult to consider implementation than consequential risk. It was thus of utmost importance to involve stakeholders not only for the specification of pathways but also for the identification and assessment of associated risks (Doukas et al, 2018). For this purpose, we designed stakeholder engagement processes, all of which built on the same set of fundamental data collection formats, including: desktop research for the identification and analysis of policy documents; open and semi-structured expert-and stakeholder interviews (face-to-face, e-mail, telephone); and different focus groups and workshop formats.…”
Section: Methods For Assessing Risks and Uncertaintiesmentioning
This book examines the uncertainties underlying various strategies for a lowcarbon future. Most prominently, such strategies relate to transitions in the energy sector, on both the supply and the demand side. At the same time they interact with other sectors, such as industrial production, transport, and building, and ultimately require new behaviour patterns at household and individual levels. Currently, much research is available on the effectiveness of these strategies but, in order to successfully implement comprehensive transition pathways, it is crucial not only to understand the benefits but also the risks. Filling this gap, this volume provides an interdisciplinary, conceptual framework to assess risks and uncertainties associated with low-carbon policies and applies this consistently across 11 country cases from around the world, illustrating alternative transition pathways in various contexts. The cases are presented as narratives, drawing on stakeholder-driven research efforts. They showcase diverse empirical evidence reflecting the complex challenges to and potential negative consequences of such pathways. Together, they enable the reader to draw valuable lessons on the risks and uncertainties associated with choosing the envisaged transition pathways, as well as ways to manage the implementation of these pathways and ultimately enable sustainable and lasting social and environmental effects. This book will be of great interest to students, scholars, and practitioners of environmental and energy policy, low-carbon transitions, renewable energy technologies, climate change action, and sustainability in general.
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