From hazard to impact: flood damage assessment tools for mega cities

Chen, Albert S.; Hammond, Michael; Djordjević, Slobodan; Butler, David; Khan, David M.; Veerbeek, William

doi:10.1007/s11069-016-2223-2

Cited by 66 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…In short, natural hazard modelling involves estimating potential hazard characteristics in terms of physical variables, such as potential flood extents and inundation depths in an area (e.g. Chen et al, 2016). As a next step, risk modelling aims to estimate the societal impacts, usually in terms of property damages, that are associated with specific hazard characteristics; for instance, the potential damage that a flood can cause in a certain geographical area (Grossi and Kunreuther, 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic evaluation of climate risk adaptation strategies: Cost-benefit analysis of flood protection in Tabasco, Mexico

Haer

Botzen

Zavala‐Hidalgo

et al. 2017

Atm

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RESUMENLas pérdidas económicas debidas a desastres naturales se han incrementado en las últimas décadas como resultado del desarrollo socioeconómico y probablemente del cambio climático. Las proyecciones indican que esta tendencia al alza continuará, lo cual resalta la necesidad de adoptar estrategias de adaptación. Esto a su vez pone de manifiesto la necesidad de establecer mejores estrategias de adaptación adecuadas para hacer frente a los embates inciertos del cambio climático. El presente estudio muestra cómo puede aplicarse una cascada de modelaciones de riesgo y desastres, y un análisis de costo-beneficio, para obtener un primer indicador de estrategias de adaptación eficientes desde el punto de vista económico. Este enfoque se aplica a un análisis de riesgos de inundación y a la conveniencia de contar con protección contra inundaciones en el estado de Tabasco, México, el cual padece graves inundaciones casi anualmente. Los resultados muestran que el daño anual esperado por inundaciones costeras se incrementará de los actuales USD 530 millones a USD 4120 millones en 2080 como resultado del desarrollo socioeconómico y el cambio climático. En cuanto al daño estimado por inundaciones fluviales, se espera que se incremente de los actuales USD 1790 millones a USD 10 600 millones en 2080 si no se establecen medidas de adaptación. Con base en el análisis de riesgo y costo-beneficio de la construcción de infraestructura contra inundaciones, establecimos en al menos 100 años los estándares óptimos de protección desde el punto de vista económico para ambos tipos de inundación. Nuestras principales conclusiones son robustas con relación a la incertidumbre sobre los efectos del cambio climático en riesgos de inundación, los daños indirectos causados por éstas, la extensión de los terrenos inundables y la tasa de descuento social adoptada. Analizamos la forma en que nuestro enfoque multidisciplinario puede ayudar a los encargados de la toma de decisiones respecto al manejo de riesgos de inundación, y la manera en que investigaciones venideras pueden ampliar nuestro método a análisis locales específicos, que son necesarios para desarrollar planes de adaptación a nivel local. ABSTRACTEconomic losses as a result of natural hazards have been rising over the past few decades due to socio-economic development and perhaps climate change. This upwards trend is projected to continue, highlighting the need for adequate adaptation strategies. This raises the question of how to determine which adaptation strategies are preferred to cope with uncertain climate change impacts. This study shows how a multi-disciplinary cascade of hazard modelling, risk modelling, and a cost-benefit analysis can be applied to provide a first indicator of economically efficient adaptation strategies. We apply this approach to an analysis of flood risk and the desirability of flood protection in the state of Tabasco in Mexico, which faces severe flooding on an almost yearly basis. The results show that expected annual damage caused by coastal flooding i...

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic evaluation of climate risk adaptation strategies: Cost-benefit analysis of flood protection in Tabasco, Mexico

Haer

Botzen

Zavala‐Hidalgo

et al. 2017

Atm

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The sum of these two raster maps thus creates a risk score map corresponding to both the flood class membership and perceived severity of the flood impact. Previous research has been done in translating water depth data into monetary damage via spatial analysis of water depth data and its proximity to buildings with different land use characteristic [6]; a modified version of this approach was used where the risk map data is substituted in place of water depth data. Spatially analysing the risk output data with respect to its proximity to critical infrastructures, allows for risk scores can to be applied to each infrastructure.…”

Section: Flood Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping urban infrastructure interdependencies and fuzzy risks

Evans

Chen

Prior

et al. 2018

Procedia Engineering

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In this study, we considered the relationships between different types of CI and services to simulate possible cascading effects during extreme hazard conditions brought on by climate change and how to analyse impacts with limited data resources. An area in central Bristol, UK, was used as the case study to investigate the interdependencies among select assets and services. A wide range of plausible scenarios caused by pipe bursts in the area were simulated using the CADDIES 2D modelling framework, to identify the hotspots with high risk. The impact on CI, including water supply, electricity, wastewater, solid waste, transportation, telecommunication, and emergency services were assessed by the HAZUR tool. The analysis demonstrated that with limited data resources the dynamics of the interdependencies between CI networks can be highlighted and a basis of risk quantification can be established. The same procedure can be repeated to evaluate the impact of other types of hazards, or the compound hazard scenarios to provide a holistic assessment. Therefore, urban planners and managers can further explore options of interventions for setting up strategies to strengthen city resilience. AbstractIn this study, we considered the relationships between different types of CI and services to simulate possible cascading effects during extreme hazard conditions brought on by climate change and how to analyse impacts with limited data resources. An area in central Bristol, UK, was used as the case study to investigate the interdependencies among select assets and services. A wide range of plausible scenarios caused by pipe bursts in the area were simulated using the CADDIES 2D modelling framework, to identify the hotspots with high risk. The impact on CI, including water supply, electricity, wastewater, solid waste, transportation, telecommunication, and emergency services were assessed by the HAZUR tool. The analysis demonstrated that with limited data resources the dynamics of the interdependencies between CI networks can be highlighted and a basis of risk quantification can be established. The same procedure can be repeated to evaluate the impact of other types of hazards, or the compound hazard scenarios to provide a holistic assessment. Therefore, urban planners and managers can further explore options of interventions for setting up strategies to strengthen city resilience.

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“…These steps are combined in a single model developed by Chen et al . () that also compensates for potential misalignment of the spatial characteristics of the required flood maps (e.g. regular grids, irregular meshes) and feature maps (e.g.…”

Section: Urban Growth Model Flood Model and Damage Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Back to the future: assessing the damage of 2004 Dhaka flood in the 2050 urban environment

Khan

Veerbeek

Chen

et al. 2015

J Flood Risk Management

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Planning to make a city flood resilient needs proper assessment of future conditions. Urban growth models are being used as a planning tool for city development. Within the project Collaborative Research in Flood Resilience in Urban Areas (CORFU), flood management strategies suitable for cities with varied geographic and socio‐economic conditions have been developed. In the paper, we adopted urban growth model to project the possible future conditions of Dhaka City, the rapidly developing capital of Bangladesh. Bangladesh lies in the delta of the Himalayan Mountain range and experiences frequent flooding. In 2004 an extreme nationwide flood event occurred, which caused major damage to Dhaka City. If the same event were to occur in 2050, it can be expected that the damage would increase significantly. Through the application of the urban growth, hydraulic and damage assessment models, we were able to determine the damage that can be expected to happen in 2050. The paper also describes the key factors that are important to determine this impact and the associated uncertainties.

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From hazard to impact: flood damage assessment tools for mega cities

Cited by 66 publications

References 24 publications

Economic evaluation of climate risk adaptation strategies: Cost-benefit analysis of flood protection in Tabasco, Mexico

Economic evaluation of climate risk adaptation strategies: Cost-benefit analysis of flood protection in Tabasco, Mexico

Mapping urban infrastructure interdependencies and fuzzy risks

Back to the future: assessing the damage of 2004 Dhaka flood in the 2050 urban environment

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