From global to national: The role of urban agglomerations in China’s new development paradigm

Abstract

Urban agglomerations (UAs), which serve as pivotal hubs for economic and innovative convergence, play a crucial role in enhancing internal circulation and strengthening external linkages. This study utilizes the China city-level multi-regional input-output tables, incorporating the Dagum Gini coefficient and kernel density estimation methods, to perform a thorough quantitative analysis. Disparities within the national and global value chains ("dual value chains") of Chinese UAs from 2012 to 2017 were assessed. Additionally, the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method was applied to disaggregate the drivers of both national and global intermediate inputs (NII and GII). The study’s key findings include the following: (1) The national value chain (NVC) within UAs exhibits robust growth, contrasting with the decline in the global value chain (GVC). (2) The inter-UA disparity contribution rate significantly surpasses the combined rates of intra-UA contribution and super-variation density. (3) Distinct evolutionary peak trends are discerned among various UAs within the "dual value chains", highlighting diverse spatial polarization characteristics and expansiveness. (4) The growth of the NVC has transitioned from a negative to a positive impact on NII, while the decline in GVC has substantially counteracted GII growth. Economic and demographic factors notably drive positive improvements in both NII and GII, whereas the efficiency of outflows presents a negative driving effect. Based on these findings, this study offers strategic recommendations to facilitate the effective integration of UAs into the new development paradigm, thereby providing a scientific basis for related decision-making processes.