From forecasts to scenarios in strategic city-regional land-use and transportation planning

Colonization of urban futures in the Global South: lessons from the case of Isfahan 2040

“…Foresight practices can generally be applied in four ways to urban futures (Ma ¨ntysalo et al, 2022;Goodspeed, 2020a, Chakraborty andMcMillan, 2015):…”

“…Considering the major complexities and externalities associated with urban planning, the need to plan for longer horizons and the fragmented essence of urban governance, a critical reflection on the traditional style of urban planning is essential; one possible way to address these challenges is to deploy “city foresight” methods (Dixon et al , 2022). Foresight practices can generally be applied in four ways to urban futures (Mäntysalo et al , 2022; Goodspeed, 2020a, Chakraborty and McMillan, 2015): projecting probable urban futures mainly through quantitative/simulation-based methods; exploring alternative urban futures primarily achieved by scenario-building; outlining preferable urban futures generally created by vision-crafting methods; and designing actionable steps to materialize urban visions by drawing on performative techniques such as backcasting and roadmapping (Dixon et al , 2014). …”

“…Against this backdrop, foresight has been incorporated into city-region planning for different purposes such as land use-transportation (Bartholomew, 2007; Lyons et al , 2021; Mäntysalo et al , 2022), energy transitions (Dixon et al , 2014; Tatar et al , 2020), urban ecosystem services (Liu and Wu, 2022), climate change (Carter, 2018), engaging the community in the interim reuse of urban derelicts (Costa et al , 2021) and aging society (Gudowsky et al , 2017), to mention but a few.…”

Long-term Insights Briefings: a futures perspective

“…It is a common mistake to make one scenario preferred and effectively convert it into a vision of the future. But 'visioning' is a different process, incorporating values and purpose, and the first step in creating an imagined future (Mäntysalo et al, 2022;Menzies, 2000). The corollary of this kind of normative approach is 'backcasting': working back from a preferred future state to see what must be done to get there.…”

“…This definition makes a distinction between futures thinking and planning, which are often treated as if they are the same. In addition, although the LTIBs' horizons are national, there is an increasing focus on futures thinking at the regional, city and local level (Dixon et al, 2022;Mäntysalo et al, 2022). 1 The above definition resonates with the view of the Centre for Strategic Futures in Singapore, a country which has a history of systematic, applied futures thinking:…”