From Empty Pews to Empty Cradles: Fertility Decline Among European Catholics

Abstract

Abstract:Total fertility in the Catholic countries of Southern Europe has dropped to remarkably low rates (=1.4) despite continuing low rates female labor force participation and high historic fertility. We model three ways in whichreligionaffects the demand for children – through norms, market wages, and childrearing costs. We estimate these effects using new panel data on church attendance and clergy employment for 13 European countries from 1960 to 2000, spanning the Second Vatican Council (1962–65). Using nuns per capita as a proxy for service provision, we estimate fertility effects on the order of 300 to 400 children per nun. Moreover, nuns outperform priests as a predictor of fertility, suggesting that changes in childrearing costs dominate changes in theology and norms. Reduced church attendance also predicts fertility decline, but only for Catholics, not for Protestants. Service provision and attendance complement each other, a finding consistent with club models of religion.

The sociology of Catholicism: A review of research and scholarship

“…Under the final theme, research has investigated a broad range of issues such as professional workers (Vaidyanathan, 2019), state violence (Morello, 2015), prophetic ministry (Casanova, 1993; Dobbelaere & Pérez‐Agote, 2015), apostasy (Bullivant, 2019; Hout, 2016), civil society mobilization (Palacios, 2007), fertility patterns (Berman et al., 2012) and beliefs/practices (Conway & Spruyt, 2018). Several studies using large‐scale social surveys investigate multiple countries within a single world region, though not necessarily investigating Catholics per se (e.g., Coutinho, 2016; Davie, 2000; Dobbelaere & Voyé, 1991; Pollack, 2008; Pollack & Rosta, 2017; Voas & Doebler, 2011; Zrinščak, 2011)), but cross‐regional comparisons (e.g., Conway & Spruyt, 2018) are much less common.…”

Driven by Institutions, Shaped by Culture: Human Capital and the Secularization of Marriage in Italy

“…For instance, Bettendorf and Dijkgraaf (2010) find that the effect of church membership on income is positive in high-income countries, but negative in low-income countries. Other consequences of religiosity are highlighted in the literature, see notably Berman, Iannaccone, and Ragusa (2018) on the role of decreasing religiosity in the fertility decline observed over the second half of the 20 th century in Southern Europe.…”

Factors Affecting Australian Catholics’ Return to Mass After COVID-19 Church Closures

“…Given this, mandated church closures during COVID-19 could be expected to have an adverse effect on churchgoing Catholic communities (Baker et al, 2020). Sunday Mass attendance rates in most Western countries have fallen since the 1950s (Berman et al, 2018;Schwadel, 2010). In Australia the rate has fallen from around 74% of all Catholics in Australia in the 1950s to around 11% in 2016 (Cave & Albeck-Ripka, 2019;National Centre for Pastoral Research [NCPR], 2013.…”