2022
DOI: 10.1139/cjfas-2021-0042
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From drought to deluge: spatiotemporal variation in migration routing, survival, travel time and floodplain use of an endangered migratory fish

Abstract: We developed a novel statistical model to relate the daily survival and migration dynamics of an endangered anadromous fish to river flow and water temperature during both extreme drought and severe flooding in an intensively managed river system. Our Bayesian temporally stratified multistate mark recapture model integrates over unobserved travel times and route transitions to efficiently estimate covariate relationships and includes an adjustment for telemetry tag battery failure. We applied the model to acou… Show more

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Cited by 7 publications
(8 citation statements)
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References 42 publications
(56 reference statements)
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“…At Gunbower, different species and size classes of fish had different strategies for exploiting and leaving the floodplain, consistent with observations from elsewhere in the Murray–Darling basin (Stoffels et al., 2014, 2016). We predicted and demonstrated that adult Australian smelt would take advantage of floodplain resources with strong breeding events followed by an early retreat from the floodplain, as an adaptation for improving survival (Hance et al., 2022). By contrast, carp gudgeon density increased as the floodplain transitioned from stable flows to managed recession flows and this species complex still rapidly outmigrated during the managed recession.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…At Gunbower, different species and size classes of fish had different strategies for exploiting and leaving the floodplain, consistent with observations from elsewhere in the Murray–Darling basin (Stoffels et al., 2014, 2016). We predicted and demonstrated that adult Australian smelt would take advantage of floodplain resources with strong breeding events followed by an early retreat from the floodplain, as an adaptation for improving survival (Hance et al., 2022). By contrast, carp gudgeon density increased as the floodplain transitioned from stable flows to managed recession flows and this species complex still rapidly outmigrated during the managed recession.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…At other temporary floodplains, golden perch also exit via major inflow and outflow points (Jones & Stuart, 2008). On floodplain recession, accurate homing of fish through specific connectivity pathways to refuge habitats has occasionally been observed elsewhere, such as tropical northern Australia (Crook et al, 2020) and in the Mediterranean climate rivers of California (Hance et al, 2022). At Gunbower, fish appeared able to negotiate the physical and hydraulic gradient of the floodplain to move among habitats and make directed exit movements.…”
Section: Movement Of Native and Non-native Speciesmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…One exception is Feather River Fish Hatchery, where 100% of spring-run Chinook Salmon juveniles are tagged with CWTs at the hatchery before being released Smolt survival studies using acoustic telemetry have provided estimates of smolt-sized springrun survival through their migratory corridor (Cordoleani et al , 2019Notch et al 2020;Singer et al 2020). However, most of the springrun tagging studies occurred during the last California drought period, and recent winter-run tagging studies show that survival varies greatly across the range of hydrological conditions and Water Year types (Hance et al 2021). Furthermore, because of the small number of tagged fish in some of these studies and their release over a short time-period, spring-run smolt survival estimates through (or to) the Delta were associated with large error margins and based on a limited portion of the out-migration season (a study of acoustic-tagged, late-fall run is an exception, see Michel et al 2015).…”
Section: Juvenile Monitoring and Jpe Developmentmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Cyril Michel observed that, at present, the winter-run JPE uses survival estimates from acoustic tagging studies from prior years that regularly differ substantially from the year in question (2021 email conversation between PN and C. Michel, unreferenced, see "Notes"). The advent of real-time acoustic telemetry and more nuanced models that link survival to flow and temperature, however, have the potential to provide more reliable annual predictions of survival (e.g., Hance et al 2021).…”
Section: Other Considerationsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Bluff Diversion Dam and the Sacramento monitoring sites under the different flow scenarios were approximated using the SacPAS Fish Model version 2.7.4 (Beer et al 2017); the Delta Survival, Travel Time, and Routing Simulation Model (Perry et al 2018;Hance et al 2022); and the findings from Hassrick et al (2022).…”
mentioning
confidence: 99%