From Decision Theory to Decision‐aiding Methodology

Abstract

The paper presents the author's partial and personal historical reconstruction of how decision theory is evolving to a decision aiding methodology. The presentation shows mainly how "alternative" approaches to classic decision theory evolved. In the paper it is claimed that all such decision "theories" share a common methodological feature, which is the use of formal and abstract languages as well as of a model of rationality. Different decision aiding approaches can thus be defined, depending on the origin of the model of rationality used in the decision aiding process. The concept of decision aiding process is then introduced and analysed. The paper's ultimate claim is that all such decision aiding approaches can be seen as part of a decision aiding methodology.

A method for obtaining transitive approximations of a binary relation

“…, n} be a set of indices for X. R does not always possess the desirable property of transitivity. One way to solve this problem is to build a transitive binary relation from R. This facts leads us to formalize the idea of transitive approximation from three points of view: from an exterior transitive approximation (T (R) ext ) by extending the set R, from an interior transitive approximation (T (R) int ) by reducing the set R, or from a mixed approximation (T (R) fit ) by fitting the set R. This variety of transitive approximations could be used as the basis for searching a contingent rationality model within the decision process in the sense of Tsoukias (2003).…”

Dynamic simulation of action at operations level

“…Since the 1950s with the early applications of Operations Research in the firms, the emphasis has been put on decision: every action stems from decision-making seen as problem-solving by a (often unique) rational decision-maker, even though the notion of rationality has evolved from mere optimization to the search for a 'satisficing' solution [29,40]. Applied to operations management, this approach posits the centrality of a 'plan' as a representation of sequences of actions to be executed to attain a goal.…”

“…Putting aside the prescriptive approach (the model provides the user with the decision) a simulation model, according to "Soft systems thinking", is better thought of as a reflexive tool aimed at fostering experimentation and apprenticeship by the user on its own actual or intended practice [8]. What-if simulation, mirroring the interplay of intended actions within the system, is thus deemed more useful to support stakeholders' decision-making than optimization which is common place in Operations Research [7,29,40]. Hence, a simulation model needs not represent the deliberative process of decision itself but, rather, 'what' is being done in fact, i.e., agents' behaviors [11].…”

On the concept of decision aiding process: an operational perspective

“…For this purpose I will try to show the differences between decision making process and decision aiding process. In order to do so I will introduce a rough classification of "decision aiding approaches" leading to the existence of different "decision theories" (for more details see Tsoukiàs 2003). In Sect.…”

“…Not all decision situations fit to such an approach. Indeed the literature (see for instance Tsoukiàs 2003) is full of industrial, military, commercial, regional planning, health care, network management etc. applications, but none, to my knowledge, ever suggested to use such an approach for wedding, divorcing, drug addiction or leisure purposes.…”