From climate change to population change: the need to consider annual life cycles

Ådahl, Emma; Lundberg, Per; Jonzén, Niclas

doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01196.x

Cited by 67 publications

(59 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…These projections are based on a model that includes the entire life cycle and its response to climate (8), integrated with projection of future climate variability. Analyses that include only part of the life cycle (for example, see ref.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Most of the literature on population-climate studies has focused on one part of the life cycle [e.g., changing timing of life history in relation to climate conditions (6,7)], because of the difficulty of measuring climate influences on life history traits over the entire life cycle (8). Few studies have adressed the population response to observed climate change (but see refs.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population

Jenouvrier

Caswell

Barbraud

et al. 2009

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

206

237

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Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins ( Aptenodytes forsteri ) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962–2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from ≈6,000 to ≈400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population

Jenouvrier

Caswell

Barbraud

et al. 2009

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

206

237

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…However, a growing body of literature demonstrates that these temporally and often geographically distinct periods of the annual cycle are inextricably linked (Harrison et al 2011). This bias in research towards studies focussing on the breeding season limits our understanding of the ecology of many species, and how individuals and populations are affected by major stressors such as rapid environmental change (Ådahl et al 2006, Small-Lorenz et al 2013.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Consistent variation in individual migration strategies of brown skuas

Krietsch¹,

Hahn²,

Kopp³

et al. 2017

Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser.

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Seabirds show remarkable variability in migration strategies among individuals and populations. In this study, we analysed 47 migrations of 28 brown skuas Catharacta antarctica lonnbergi breeding on King George Island in the Maritime Antarctic. Brown skuas from this population used a large area during the non-breeding period north of 55°S, including parts of the Patagonian Shelf, Argentine Basin and South Brazil Shelf, areas which are characterised by high levels of marine productivity. However, individual birds utilised only a subset of these areas, adopting 1 of 4 distinct migration strategies to which they were highly faithful between years, and showed high repeatability in departure and arrival dates at the breeding ground. Although they spent the majority of the non-breeding season within a particular region, almost all individuals used the same area in the late winter, exploiting its seasonal peak in productivity. Overall, these results indicate consistent individual variation in migration strategies that may reflect a combination of genetic control and individual experience, but with considerable flexibility to shift distribution in response to prevailing environmental conditions. KEY WORDS: Catharacta antarctica lonnbergi · Seabird ecology · Light-level geolocation · Non-breeding distribution · Individual consistency · Ocean primary productivity · Migratory connectivity Contribution to the Theme Section 'Individual varability in seabird foraging and migration'

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“…An increasing recognition of pressures facing wildlife populations from global climate change and habitat degradation has led to a growing interest in quantitative studies of the factors affecting the distribution and abundance of rare species (Walther et al, 2002;Adahl et al, 2006;Sagarin et al, 2006). Understanding how demographic parameters are influenced by temporal environmental variability is critical for interpreting changes in animal populations (Caswell, 2001) and in predicting how species will respond to future climate change scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global climate cycles and cyclones: consequences for rainfall patterns and lemur reproduction in southeastern Madagascar

Dunham

Erhart

Wright

2010

Global Change Biology

107

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Most studies that examine the influence of climatic change on flora and fauna have focused on northern latitudes; however, there is increasing recognition that tropical regions are also being affected. Despite this, regions such as Madagascar, which are rich in endemic biodiversity but may have low adaptive capacity to climatic change, are poorly represented in studies examining the effects of climate variability on biota. We investigated how El Niñ o Southern Oscillations (ENSO) influence precipitation patterns in the rainforest region of southeastern Madagascar (1962Madagascar ( -2006 and then constructed models to assess the potential contribution of climatic variables on the reproductive parameters of the Milne Edward's sifaka, a threatened lemur species (Propithecus edwardsi), over a 20-year period. The Southern Oscillation Index of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific was associated with precipitation patterns including wetter wet seasons during warmer phases and drier dry seasons following cooler phases. The bestsupported models of lemur fecundity (female offspring per female that survive to 1 year of age per year) included cyclone presence during gestation and ENSO phase before conception and during the first 6 months of life. Models also suggested that heavy rains during gestation may limit birth rates and that prolonged drought during female lactation may limit first year offspring survival; although these variables were given little importance for predicting overall fecundity relative to ENSO phases and cyclone presence. Our results linking lemur reproduction with climatic variability suggest that climatic changes may be an additional threat to Madagascar's unique and already endangered flora and fauna. The association between precipitation in southeastern Madagascar and SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific suggests that dynamics of wildlife populations even in tropical areas such as Madagascar can be affected by global climate cycles making them potentially vulnerable to global climate change.

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From climate change to population change: the need to consider annual life cycles

Cited by 67 publications

References 25 publications

Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population

Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population

Consistent variation in individual migration strategies of brown skuas

Global climate cycles and cyclones: consequences for rainfall patterns and lemur reproduction in southeastern Madagascar

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