From Boom to Bust? A Critical Look at US Shale Gas Projections

Abstract

US shale gas production is generally expected to continue its fast rise. However, a cautious evaluation is needed.Shale gas resource estimates are potentially overoptimistic and it is uncertain to which extent they can be produced economically. Moreover, the adverse environmental effects of ever more wells to be drilled may lead to a fall in public acceptance and a strengthening of regulation. The objective of this paper is hence twofold: providing a critical look at current US shale gas projections, and investigating in a second step the implications of a less optimistic development by means of numerical simulation. In a world of declining US shale production after 2015, natural gas consumption outside the USA is reduced from its reference path by at least as much as US consumption. Trade flows are redirected, and the current US debate on LNG export capacity requirements becomes obsolete.

Boom or bust? Mapping out the known unknowns of global shale gas production potential

“…Conversely, considering more pessimistic assumptions could lead to a more moderate scenario in which US shale gas production peaks around 2030 (EIA, 2014). Even more dramatic scenarios in which production peaks between 2015 and 2020 have been generated and reported (Ikonnikova et al, 2015;Richter, 2015). The large uncertainty reflected in these extreme scenarios is a great burden to energy policy makers, investors, and infrastructure planners.…”

South Africa After Paris—Fracking Its Way to the NDCs?

“…However, the impact of this overestimation is not significant as the resource volume is, in none of the tested scenarios, the limiting factor for shale gas extraction. The growth limitations for the shale gas industry are based on the growth rates of approximately 2 EJ/a experienced during the development of the major U.S. shale plays, i.e., the Fayetteville, Marcellus, Woodford, Bakken, Haynesville and Barnett plays (Richter, 2015;EIA, 2016a). In our model we limit the South African shale gas extraction during the first decade of production to 50% of the U.S. production growth rates because South Africa does not yet have the necessary gas infrastructure, including long-distance pipelines and local distribution networks.…”