From advocacy to action: Projecting the health impacts of climate change

Nissan, Hannah; Conway, Declan

doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1002624

Cited by 26 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…These research topics remain broad but can potentially produce valuable findings and offer key solutions to several existing problems. For a country with considerable vulnerability to extreme weather events and climate change, prioritizing health vulnerabilities and health adaptation research is an easy recommendation because it potentially addresses present and near-future issues [48]. These can also generate tangible evidence and technology that can be relatively appreciated by policy-makers and the general public.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scoping Review of Climate Change and Health Research in the Philippines: A Complementary Tool in Research Agenda-Setting

Chua

Dorotan²,

Sigua³

et al. 2019

IJERPH

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The impacts of climate change on human health have been observed and projected in the Philippines as vector-borne and heat-related diseases have and continue to increase. As a response, the Philippine government has given priority to climate change and health as one of the main research funding topics. To guide in identifying more specific research topics, a scoping review was done to complement the agenda-setting process by mapping out the extent of climate change and health research done in the country. Research articles and grey literature published from 1980 to 2017 were searched from online databases and search engines, and a total of 34 quantitative studies were selected. Fifty-three percent of the health topics studied were about mosquito-borne diseases, particularly dengue fever. Seventy-nine percent of the studies reported evidence of positive associations between climate factors and health outcomes. Recommended broad research themes for funding were health vulnerability, health adaptation, and co-benefits. Other notable recommendations were the development of open data and reproducible modeling schemes. In conclusion, the scoping review was useful in providing a background for research agenda-setting; however, additional analyses or consultations should be complementary for added depth.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scoping Review of Climate Change and Health Research in the Philippines: A Complementary Tool in Research Agenda-Setting

Chua

Dorotan²,

Sigua³

et al. 2019

IJERPH

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In practice, long‐term projections are rarely used directly to influence operational decisions (Berrang‐Ford, Ford, & Paterson, ; Dilling & Lemos, ; Jones et al, ; Kiem & Austin, ; Singh et al, ; Villanueva & Sword‐Daniels, ), though there are many examples of their use to assess future risks (Dessai et al, ; Mittal et al, ; Singh et al, ). More often, they are employed to advocate for mitigation and adaptation efforts (Nissan & Conway, ), to set priorities and guide long‐term strategy, and to write reports and comply with funding requirements (Mittal et al, ; Sherman et al, ).…”

Section: How Did We Get Here?mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition to energy policy, examples include infrastructure projects, such as irrigation reservoirs, coastal developments and flood defenses, and other long‐term investment and planning (Jones et al, ). Research on longer‐term climate change also helps shape policy priorities by influencing the discourse around climate resilience and change (Nissan & Conway, ) and can cast shorter‐term decisions in the context of underlying trends to ensure resilience (Dessai et al, ). Time horizons for most longer‐term decisions range from several years to two or three decades (Figure ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the use and misuse of climate change projections in international development

Nissan¹,

Goddard²,

Pérez

et al. 2019

WIREs Climate Change

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Climate resilience is increasingly prioritized by international development agencies and national governments. However, current approaches to informing communities of future climate risk are problematic. The predominant focus on end-of-century projections neglects more pressing development concerns, which relate to the management of shorter-term risks and climate variability, and constitutes a substantial opportunity cost for the limited financial and human resources available to tackle development challenges. When a long-term view genuinely is relevant to decisionmaking, much of the information available is not fit for purpose. Climate model projections are able to capture many aspects of the climate system and so can be relied upon to guide mitigation plans and broad adaptation strategies, but the use of these models to guide local, practical adaptation actions is unwarranted. Climate models are unable to represent future conditions at the degree of spatial, temporal, and probabilistic precision with which projections are often provided, which gives a false impression of confidence to users of climate change information. In this article, we outline these issues, review their history, and provide a set of practical steps for both the development and climate scientist communities to consider. Solutions to mobilize the best available science include a focus on decision-relevant timescales, an increased role for model evaluation and expert judgment and the integration of climate variability into climate change services. This article is categorized under: Climate and Development > Knowledge and Action in Development K E Y W O R D S climate change adaptation, climate change projections, climate resilience, climate services, international development

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“…Top-down assessments are most frequently applied to define initial assumptions and to scope adaptation assessments, often without critical engagement with underlying physical or social relations within the original models of the systems 9 . Such approaches are not without their challenges and whilst these have been recognized for some time 7,10,11 progress towards effective linkage between top-down and alternative approaches has been piecemeal 12,13 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The need for bottom-up assessments of climate risks and adaptation in climate-sensitive regions

et al. 2019

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Studies of climate change at specific intervals of future warming have primarily been addressed through top-down approaches using climate projections and modelled impacts. In contrast, bottom-up approaches focus on the recent past and present vulnerability. Here, we examine climate signals at different increments of warming and consider the need to reconcile top-down and bottom-up approaches. We synthesise insights from recent studies in three climate-sensitive systems where change is a defining feature of the human-environment system. Whilst top-down and bottom-up approaches generate complementary insights into who and what is at risk, integrating their results is a much needed step towards developing relevant information to address the needs of immediate adaptation decisions.

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From advocacy to action: Projecting the health impacts of climate change

Abstract: In a Perspective, Hannah Nissan and Declan Conway discuss the implications of uncertainty about projected impacts of climate change on health.

Cited by 26 publications

References 25 publications

Scoping Review of Climate Change and Health Research in the Philippines: A Complementary Tool in Research Agenda-Setting

Scoping Review of Climate Change and Health Research in the Philippines: A Complementary Tool in Research Agenda-Setting

On the use and misuse of climate change projections in international development

The need for bottom-up assessments of climate risks and adaptation in climate-sensitive regions

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