From accelerated warming to warming hiatus in China

Abstract

As the recent global warming hiatus has attracted worldwide attention, we examined the robustness of the warming hiatus in China and the related dynamical mechanisms in this study. Based on the results confirmed by the multiple data and trend analysis methods, we found that the annual mean temperature in China had a cooling trend during the recent global warming hiatus period, which suggested a robust warming hiatus in China. The warming hiatus in China was dominated by the cooling trend in the cold season, which was mainly induced by the more frequent and enhanced extreme‐cold events. By examining the variability of the temperature over different time scales, we found the recent warming hiatus was mainly associated with a downward change of decadal variability, which counteracted the background warming trend. Decadal variability was also much greater in the cold season than in the warm season, and also contributed the most to the previous accelerated warming. We found that the previous accelerated warming and the recent warming hiatus, and the decadal variability of temperature in China were connected to changes in atmospheric circulation. There were opposite circulation changes during these two periods. The westerly winds from the low to the high troposphere over the north of China all enhanced during the previous accelerated warming period, while it weakened during the recent hiatus. The enhanced westerly winds suppressed the invasion of cold air from the Arctic and vice versa. Less frequent atmospheric blocking during the accelerated warming period and more frequent blocking during the recent warming hiatus confirmed this hypothesis. Furthermore, variation in the Siberian High and East Asian winter monsoon season supports the given conclusions.

Warming across decades and deciles: minimum and maximum daily temperatures in China, 1955–2014

“…The slight negative changes in the first three deciles for both T max and T min during the ‘warming hiatus’ period reflect Xie et al . ()'s finding of a cooling trend in the cold season in mean air temperature that induced more frequent and more extreme cold‐weather events. We can interpret these patterns in terms of seasonal change, which supports the assertion by Cohen et al .…”

Dryland climate change: Recent progress and challenges

“…The EAWM has also been shown to have a close relationship to the Siberian high, which is mainly caused by the cold land temperatures during the winter [ Gong and Wang , ; Xie et al ., ]. In recent decades, the Siberian high has strengthened, leading to stronger cold surges from the Arctic and generating winter cooling over East Asian dryland regions [ Xie et al ., ; Huang et al ., ]. On a hemispheric scale, Wallace et al .…”

“…At a regional scale, the monsoon is associated with the land‐sea thermal contrast, e.g., variations in East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) intensity affect wintertime temperature and precipitation over Asian dryland regions. The EAWM has also been shown to have a close relationship to the Siberian high, which is mainly caused by the cold land temperatures during the winter [ Gong and Wang , ; Xie et al ., ]. In recent decades, the Siberian high has strengthened, leading to stronger cold surges from the Arctic and generating winter cooling over East Asian dryland regions [ Xie et al ., ; Huang et al ., ].…”

“…This feedback would help to accelerate global warming during the accelerated warming period, as well as generate a cooling trend over the Eurasian continent during the recent warming hiatus period. Many studies have shown that Eurasian blocking increased during the warming hiatus of 1998–2012 [ C. Li et al ., ; Xie et al ., ; Huang et al ., ], which supports the above proposed mechanism.…”

Regional differences in shifts of temperature trends across China between 1980 and 2017

“…() analysed meteorological records in China for the period of 1961–2004 and showed that the warming trend started around 1980 in most stations and that this phenomenon gradually occurred later from north to south. Nevertheless, through applying the period of global warming “hiatus” for a priori justification to regional scales (Chen and Zhai, ), several recent studies pointed out that China also experienced a warming “hiatus” since 1998 (Li et al ., ; ; Xie et al ., ; Shen et al ., ). In different regions, a strong warming “hiatus” in eastern China was observed during 1998–2013 (Chen and Zhai, ), especially in Northeast China (Sun et al ., ), whereas an accelerated warming trend was detected on the Tibetan Plateau over the same period (Duan and Xiao, ; Ma et al ., ).…”