FRiED: A NOVEL THREE-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS

Isavnin, Alexey

doi:10.3847/1538-4357/833/2/267

Cited by 85 publications

(86 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…Combined imaging and in situ observations by Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter, and BepiColombo will lead to further CME modeling constraints. 3DCORE and other semiempirical models (Isavnin, ; Kay et al, ) will highly likely provide a valuable modeling context to interpret data returned by these new, groundbreaking missions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forward Modeling of Coronal Mass Ejection Flux Ropes in the Inner Heliosphere with 3DCORE

et al. 2018

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Forecasting the geomagnetic effects of solar storms, known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), is currently severely limited by our inability to predict the magnetic field configuration in the CME magnetic core and by observational effects of a single spacecraft trajectory through its 3‐D structure. CME magnetic flux ropes can lead to continuous forcing of the energy input to the Earth's magnetosphere by strong and steady southward‐pointing magnetic fields. Here we demonstrate in a proof‐of‐concept way a new approach to predict the southward field B z in a CME flux rope. It combines a novel semiempirical model of CME flux rope magnetic fields (Three‐Dimensional Coronal ROpe Ejection) with solar observations and in situ magnetic field data from along the Sun‐Earth line. These are provided here by the MESSENGER spacecraft for a CME event on 9–13 July 2013. Three‐Dimensional Coronal ROpe Ejection is the first such model that contains the interplanetary propagation and evolution of a 3‐D flux rope magnetic field, the observation by a synthetic spacecraft, and the prediction of an index of geomagnetic activity. A counterclockwise rotation of the left‐handed erupting CME flux rope in the corona of 30° and a deflection angle of 20° is evident from comparison of solar and coronal observations. The calculated Dst matches reasonably the observed Dst minimum and its time evolution, but the results are highly sensitive to the CME axis orientation. We discuss assumptions and limitations of the method prototype and its potential for real time space weather forecasting and heliospheric data interpretation.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forward Modeling of Coronal Mass Ejection Flux Ropes in the Inner Heliosphere with 3DCORE

et al. 2018

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“…However, in practice, when using only coronagraph and HI observations, it is common to assume that these parameters are stationary (such as CME half width and propagation direction), as there are not the observations or physical understanding to plausibly evaluate their time dependence. However, we are interested to see how the recently published FRiED model may contribute to this area [Isavnin, 2016]. Furthermore, the remote sensing package on Solar Orbiter, in particular the METIS and SoloHI instruments, may well provide the out-of-ecliptic CME observations needed to improve our understanding of the time dependence of these parameters.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Testing the current paradigm for space weather prediction with heliospheric imagers

et al. 2017

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Predictions of the arrival of four coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in geospace are produced through use of three CME geometric models combined with CME drag modeling, constraining these models with the available Coronagraph and Heliospheric Imager data. The efficacy of these predications is assessed by comparison with the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) numerical MHD forecasts of these same events. It is found that such a prediction technique cannot outperform the standard SWPC forecast at a statistically meaningful level. We test the Harmonic Mean, Self‐Similar Expansion, and Ellipse Evolution geometric models, and find that, for these events at least, the differences between the models are smaller than the observational errors. We present a new method of characterizing CME fronts in the Heliospheric Imager field of view, utilizing the analysis of citizen scientists working with the Solar Stormwatch project, and we demonstrate that this provides a more accurate representation of the CME front than is obtained by experts analyzing elongation time maps for the studied events. Comparison of the CME kinematics estimated independently from the STEREO‐A and STEREO‐B Heliospheric Imager data reveals inconsistencies that cannot be explained within the observational errors and model assumptions. We argue that these observations imply that the assumptions of the CME geometric models are routinely invalidated and question their utility in a space weather forecasting context. These results argue for the continuing development of more advanced techniques to better exploit the Heliospheric Imager observations for space weather forecasting.

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“…This is possibly due to an overestimation of the CME radial size in the simulation, e.g. the model does not account for possible flattening or "pancaking" effects occurring already at distances comparable to the heliospheric inner boundary (Riley & Crooker 2004;Savani et al 2011;Isavnin 2016). Extending the model to allow for some CME shape deformations to be specified at the simulation inner boundary, such as an elongation in the longitudinal and/or latitudinal directions in order to make the spheromak elliptical, could improve the time series for the magnetic field components, i.e.…”

Section: Event 1: Cme On 12 July 2012mentioning

confidence: 99%

Observation-based modelling of magnetised coronal mass ejections with EUHFORIA

Scolini

Rodriguez

Mierla

et al. 2019

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Context. Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are the primary source of strong space weather disturbances at Earth. Their geoeffectiveness is largely determined by their dynamic pressure and internal magnetic fields, for which reliable predictions at Earth are not possible with traditional cone CME models. Aims. We study two well-observed Earth-directed CMEs using the EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUH-FORIA) model, testing for the first time the predictive capabilities of a linear force-free spheromak CME model initialised using parameters derived from remote-sensing observations. Methods. Using observation-based CME input parameters, we perform magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the events with EUH-FORIA, using the cone and spheromak CME models.Results. Simulations show that spheromak CMEs propagate faster than cone CMEs when initialised with the same kinematic parameters. We interpret these differences as result of different Lorentz forces acting within cone and spheromak CMEs, which lead to different CME expansions in the heliosphere. Such discrepancies can be mitigated by initialising spheromak CMEs with a reduced speed corresponding to the radial speed only. Results at Earth evidence that the spheromak model improves the predictions of B (B z ) up to 12-60 (22-40) percentage points compared to a cone model. Considering virtual spacecraft located within ±10 • around Earth, B (B z ) predictions reach 45-70% (58-78%) of the observed peak values. The spheromak model shows inaccurate predictions of the magnetic field parameters at Earth for CMEs propagating away from the Sun-Earth line.Conclusions. The spheromak model successfully predicts the CME properties and arrival time in the case of strictly Earth-directed events, while modelling CMEs propagating away from the Sun-Earth line requires extra care due to limitations related to the assumed spherical shape. The spatial variability of modelling results and the typical uncertainties in the reconstructed CME direction advocate the need to consider predictions at Earth and at virtual spacecraft located around it.

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FRiED: A NOVEL THREE-DIMENSIONAL MODEL OF CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS

Cited by 85 publications

References 48 publications

Forward Modeling of Coronal Mass Ejection Flux Ropes in the Inner Heliosphere with 3DCORE

Forward Modeling of Coronal Mass Ejection Flux Ropes in the Inner Heliosphere with 3DCORE

Testing the current paradigm for space weather prediction with heliospheric imagers

Observation-based modelling of magnetised coronal mass ejections with EUHFORIA

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