FRESHER and RARE 2030: scanning the horizon emerging trends in health and healthcare

Abstract

Background Health and healthcare are facing novel challenges ranging from broad, shifting trends to emerging innovative technologies and social practices. Foresight methodology aims to analyse emerging trends, building different future scenarios and identifying policy options to support the policy dialogue. Methods FRESHER and RARE 2030 are two EU-H2020 projects. FRESHER- FoRESight for hEalth policy development and Regulation (2016-2018) aimed at representing long term alternative health Scenarios testing future policies to tackle the burden of Non-Communicable Diseases. A micro-simulation model, specifically enhanced by the project, also computed the health outcomes of the different four Scenarios. Rare 2030-Foresight in Rare Diseases Policy (2019-2020) uses a participatory approach to identify the most relevant trends, anticipate their influence over the next decade and propose policy recommendations that could lead to a better future for people living with Rare Diseases. Different in scope, these projects share common features. Both follow a four steps foresight methodology: horizon scanning, trends identification and ranking, scenarios building, back-casting and policy elaboration. Taking a participatory approach, these studies apply structured qualitative tools, involve a wide range of stakeholders and include regional case studies. Results 20 trends emerged as key for the future of health and healthcare, among them: demographic change, rise of inequality, urbanisation, climate change and low carbon development, innovation in medicine, citizens empowerment and the potential for big data and Artificial Intelligence application. Conclusions The 20 trends analysed offering a litmus test for future proofing current health and healthcare policies. Foresight has proven to be a valid methodology to gather collective intelligence for identifying emerging trends and scenarios, evaluating risks and opportunities, setting long term goals and helping the decision making in health. Key messages To promote a transition toward better health policies, it is crucial supporting the collaborative attitude and ensuring a greater involvement of citizens and patients in the decision making. The importance and unpredictability recognized to the equity trend in both projects reveals the need for urgent actions to ensure the future access to better health and care to all European citizens.