“…When making an important decision, knowing how to apply and interpret this mathematical formula containing conditional probabilities with several interacting parameters is inherently difficult (Cole and Davidson, 1989). Yet this scenario is surprisingly commonplace in medical decision making, given laboratory test results (Cole, 1989), when seeking informed consent, understanding the risks and benefits of participating in a clinical trial (Schapira et al, 2008), or for making financial decisions about investments without guaranteed returns (Spiegelhalter et al, 2011).…”