Frequency of severe thunderstorms across Europe expected to increase in the 21st century due to rising instability

Rädler, Anja T.; Groenemeijer, Pieter; Faust, Eberhard; Sausen, R.; Púčik, Tomáš

doi:10.1038/s41612-019-0083-7

Cited by 92 publications

(67 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Climate model simulations with the new generation of Coordinated Downscaling Experiment over Europe (EURO-COR-DEX 91 ) reveal an increasing trend towards a higher frequency of river floods extremes across most of Europe with future global warming. Towards the end of the twenty-first century, the results from the EURO-CORDEX simulations show no significant change in annual precipitation over northern Italy, but at the same time an approximately 20% increase in maximum daily precipitation 92 .…”

Section: Comparison To Alternative Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Historical predictability of rainfall erosivity: a reconstruction for monitoring extremes over Northern Italy (1500–2019)

Diodato¹,

Ljungqvist

Bellocchi

2020

npj Clim Atmos Sci

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Erosive storms constitute a major natural hazard. They are frequently a source of erosional processes impacting the natural landscape with considerable economic consequences. Understanding the aggressiveness of storms (or rainfall erosivity) is essential for the awareness of environmental hazards as well as for knowledge of how to potentially control them. Reconstructing historical changes in rainfall erosivity is challenging as it requires continuous time-series of short-term rainfall events. Here, we present the first homogeneous environmental (1500–2019 CE) record, with the annual resolution, of storm aggressiveness for the Po River region, northern Italy, which is to date also the longest such time-series of erosivity in the world. To generate the annual erosivity time-series, we developed a model consistent with a sample (for 1981–2015 CE) of detailed Revised Universal Soil Loss Erosion-based data obtained for the study region. The modelled data show a noticeable descending trend in rainfall erosivity together with a limited inter-annual variability until ~1708, followed by a slowly increasing erosivity trend. This trend has continued until the present day, along with a larger inter-annual variability, likely associated with an increased occurrence of short-term, cyclone-related, extreme rainfall events. These findings call for the need of strengthening the environmental support capacity of the Po River landscape and beyond in the face of predicted future changing erosive storm patterns.

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Section: Comparison To Alternative Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Historical predictability of rainfall erosivity: a reconstruction for monitoring extremes over Northern Italy (1500–2019)

Diodato¹,

Ljungqvist

Bellocchi

2020

npj Clim Atmos Sci

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“…Colarieti Tosti 67 also reported that in the coming decades the polar vortex would likely go through a phase of expansion towards the southern latitudes, with consequent exacerbation of the hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean. An increasing frequency of extreme precipitation events is also expected over hazard-exposed landscapes over much of Europe towards the end of the twenty-first century 9 , 68 .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fingerprint of climate change in precipitation aggressiveness across the central Mediterranean (Italian) area

Diodato¹,

Ljungqvist

Bellocchi

2020

Sci Rep

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Rainfall erosivity and its derivative, erosivity density (ED, i.e., the erosivity per unit of rain), is a main driver of considerable environmental damages and economic losses worldwide. This study is the first to investigate the interannual variability, and return periods, of both rainfall erosivity and ED over the Mediterranean for the period 1680–2019. By capturing the relationship between seasonal rainfall, its variability, and recorded hydrological extremes in documentary data consistent with a sample (1981–2015) of detailed Revised Universal Soil Loss Erosion-based data, we show a noticeable decreasing trend of rainfall erosivity since about 1838. However, the 30-year return period of ED values indicates a positive long-term trend, in tandem with the resurgence of very wet days (> 95th percentile) and the erosive activity of rains during the past two decades. A possible fingerprint of recent warming is the occurrence of prolonged wet spells in apparently more erratic and unexpected ways.

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“…Accelerated warming of the Arctic (Holland and Bitz, 2003) would result in meridional amplification and slower propagation of the Rossby waves, leading to an increase in the frequency of blocking conditions and associated extreme events (Francis and Vavrus, 2012;Liu et al, 2012;Screen and Simonds, 2014). The increased frequency, duration and intensity of both heat waves (e.g., Spinoni et al, 2015) and heavy rainfall events (Púčik et al, 2017;Rädler et al, 2019) would thus lead to a higher ablation rate of surface and cave glaciers than that expected from increased temperatures alone. 290…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unprecedented loss of surface and cave ice in SE Europe related to record summer rains in 2019

Perşoiu

Buzjak

Onaca

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Glaciers worldwide are shrinking at an accelerated rate as the climate changes in response to anthropogenic influence. While increasing air temperature is the main factor behind glacier mass loss, changing atmospheric circulation patterns and the distribution of precipitation also plays a role, though these are not as well understood. Furthermore, while the mass balance of surface glaciers (from large polar ice sheets to small alpine glaciers) is relatively well documented and continuously monitored, little to nothing is known about the response of cave glaciers (perennial ice accumulations in rock-hosted caves) to atmospheric warming. In this context, we present the response of cave and surface glaciers in SE Europe to synoptic conditions in summer 2019. Our investigation shows that extreme precipitation events occurring between May and July 2019 led to catastrophic loss of ice at levels unprecedented during the last century. As climate models predict that such extreme precipitation events are set to increase in frequency and intensity, the presence of cave glaciers in SE Europe and the paleoclimatic information they host may be lost in the near future. Moreover, the same projected continuous warming and increase in precipitation extremes could pose an additional threat to the Alpine glaciers in southern Europe, resulting in faster than predicted melting.

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Frequency of severe thunderstorms across Europe expected to increase in the 21st century due to rising instability

Cited by 92 publications

References 22 publications

Historical predictability of rainfall erosivity: a reconstruction for monitoring extremes over Northern Italy (1500–2019)

Historical predictability of rainfall erosivity: a reconstruction for monitoring extremes over Northern Italy (1500–2019)

Fingerprint of climate change in precipitation aggressiveness across the central Mediterranean (Italian) area

Unprecedented loss of surface and cave ice in SE Europe related to record summer rains in 2019

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