Frequency curves of high and low flows in intermittent river basins for hydrological analysis and hydraulic design

Abstract

Upper and lower percentiles of Flow Duration Curves (FDCs) of daily streamflow data were investigated to develop frequency curves. Upper percentiles with exceedance probability of 1, 5 and 10% (Q1, Q5, Q10) were used for high flows, and lower percentiles with non-exceedance probability of 10, 5 and 1% (Q90, Q95, Q99) for low flows. Median value (Q50) was covered to represent the average conditions of streamflow. A mixed frequency analysis based on the total probability theorem taking zero values into account was applied for the lower percentiles of FDC. Case studies were performed for three intermittent Streamflow Gauging Stations (SGSs) from Kucuk Menderes River Basin in western Turkey. An overall assessment of results shows that the best-fit probability distribution function does not change from one SGS to another considerably for low flows while each SGS has its own probability distribution function for high flows. Upper and lower percentiles, and median value were calculated at various return periods by using the identified probability distribution functions. The calculated values were plotted in the form of frequency curves of high flow percentiles and low flow percentiles. The frequency curves have a practically significant potential use in hydrological analysis, water resources management and hydraulic design under high and low flow conditions. They are yet open to further development for regionalization and their applicability can be extended to ungauged sites in river basins.

Developing Regional Hydrological Drought Risk Models through Ordinary and Principal Component Regression Using Low-Flow Indexes in Susurluk Basin, Turkey

“…[41] developed low flow duration-frequency curves with hybrid frequency analysis; Ref. [42] determined frequency curves of high and low flows in intermittent river basins for hydrological analysis and hydraulic design. Susurluk Basin, one of the 25 river basins of Turkey, is among the basins that can be greatly affected by the risk of drought due to its agricultural, economic, and natural characteristics [43].…”