Frequency analysis of extreme rainfall in Cumbria, 16–20 November 2009

Stewart, Elizabeth; Morris, D.; Jones, David A.; Gibson, Harry S.

doi:10.2166/nh.2012.033

Cited by 7 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…[Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com] 2367 EXTREME FLOODING IS THE WORLD'S MOST DAMAGING NATURAL HAZARD was estimated at 378 m 3 s -1 with a single-site return period of 311 (95% confidence limits of >50 <50,000) years (Miller et al, 2013). In January 2005 a westerly airstream generated a near stationary weather front across northern England and southern Scotland that contributed heavy rainfall (<180.4 mm) across Cumbria with an estimated return frequency of <200 years (Stewart et al, 2012) resulting in an estimated peak flow of 219 m 3 s -1 on the Derwent (Portinscale) (Miller et al, 2013).…”

Section: Study Site and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In November 2009, a weather front became stationary over Cumbria, resulting in prolonged (36 hour) and heavy rainfall (Miller et al, ). High altitude areas received more than 400 mm of rainfall (72‐hours), setting a then 24 hour rainfall record for the UK in the Bassenthwaite catchment (316 mm, Recurrence Interval ~1,862 years) (Stewart et al, ). The resulting peak flow into Bassenthwaite was estimated as 402 m 3 s ‐1 for the River Derwent, with a single‐site return period of 228 years (95% confidence limit of >40 and <50,000) (Miller et al, ; Wong et al, ).…”

Section: Study Site and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Using lake sediment archives to improve understanding of flood magnitude and frequency: Recent extreme flooding in northwest UK

Chiverrell

Sear

Warburton

et al. 2019

Earth Surf Processes Landf

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We present the first quantitative reconstruction of palaeofloods using lake sediments for the UK and show that for a large catchment in NW England the cluster of devastating floods from 1990 to present is without precedent in this 558‐year palaeo‐record. Our approach augments conventional flood magnitude and frequency (FMF) analyses with continuous lake sedimentary data to provide a longer‐term perspective on flood magnitude recurrence probabilities. The 2009 flood, the largest in >558 years, had a recurrence interval larger (1:2,200 year) than revealed by conventional flood estimation using shorter duration gauged single station records (1:1,700 year). Flood‐rich periods are non‐stationary in their correlation with climate indices, but the 1990‐2018 cluster is associated with warmer Northern Hemisphere Temperatures and positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Monitored records rarely capture the largest floods and our palaeoflood series shows, for this catchment, such omissions undermine evaluations of future risk. Our approach provides an exemplar of how to derive centennial palaeoflood reconstructions from lakes coupled well with their catchments around the world. © 2019 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

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Section: Study Site and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Study Site and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Using lake sediment archives to improve understanding of flood magnitude and frequency: Recent extreme flooding in northwest UK

Chiverrell

Sear

Warburton

et al. 2019

Earth Surf Processes Landf

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“…(). The November 2009 (Stewart et al ., ; Miller et al ., ) was not considered either, but again, this event occurred after the study of Johnson et al . () was published.…”

Section: Case Study: Surprising Events In the United Kingdommentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the element of surprise of record‐breaking flood events

Kjeldsen

Prosdocimi

2016

J Flood Risk Management

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The occurrence of record‐breaking flood events continues to cause damage and disruption despite significant investments in flood defences, suggesting that these events are in some sense surprising. This study develops a new statistical test to help assess if a flood event can be considered surprising or not. The test statistic is derived from annual maximum series (AMS) of extreme events, and Monte Carlo simulations were used to derive critical values for a range of significance levels based on a Generalised Logistic distribution. The method is tested on a national data set of AMS of peak flow from the United Kingdom, and is found to correctly identify recent large events that have been identified elsewhere as causing a significant change in UK flood management policy. No temporal trend in the frequency or magnitude of surprising events was identified, and no link could be established between the occurrences of surprising events and large‐scale drivers. Finally, the implications of the findings for future research examining the most extreme flood events are discussed.

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“…Stewart et al (2012) explore the meteorological and hydrological rarity of the exceptional Cumbria flooding of 2009 using a new rainfall depth-duration-frequency model for the UK. The event established a new 24-hour rainfall record for the UK and provides an excellent opportunity for application of the new method.…”

Section: Role Of Hydrology In Managing Consequences Of a Changing Glomentioning

confidence: 99%