Free trade zone of Manaus: Na impact evaluation using the synthetic control method

Possebom, Vitor

doi:10.5935/0034-7140.20170011

Cited by 13 publications

(24 citation statements)

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“…al. 2014, Calderon 2014, De Souza 2014; and local development policies (Kirkpatrick and Bennear 2014, Gobillon and Magnac 2016, Possebom 2017, Ando 2015, among several others.…”

Section: Prior Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Synthetic Control Estimator: A Tool for Comparative Case Studies in Economic History

Emery¹,

Gilchrist²,

Spruk³

et al. 2020

SSRN Journal

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“…al. 2014, Calderon 2014, De Souza 2014; and local development policies (Kirkpatrick and Bennear 2014, Gobillon and Magnac 2016, Possebom 2017, Ando 2015, among several others.…”

Section: Prior Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Synthetic Control Estimator: A Tool for Comparative Case Studies in Economic History

Emery¹,

Gilchrist²,

Spruk³

et al. 2020

SSRN Journal

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“…6 GDP growth in the municipality of Manaus, and even that observed at the level of the state of Amazonas (5.3%), was higher on average than the growth observed in Brazil (3.6%) in the 2000 to 2010 decade. 7 Possebom (2017) has recently used a synthetic control method to try to evaluate the economic impact of the FTZM over a long time period , though his study relies on macro-aggregates and not individual-level data. The author concludes that the FTZM subsidy policy achieved its goal of promoting regional economic growth, though not all sectors benefited from the presumed positive spillovers from the manufacturing sector (in particular, agriculture).…”

Section: Acknowledgmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Our inequality decompositions are omitted to save space but available from the authors upon request. 40 As already mentioned in note 7, to our knowledge, the only effort to clearly evaluate the impact of the FTZM is the recent paper by Possebom (2017). In his article the author develops a synthetic control method that does not rely on microdata at the individual level but on macro-aggregates such as GDP per capita and agriculture, manufacture or services total production per capita for "minimum comparable areas" (local economic units stable over time).…”

Section: Acknowledgmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“… Possebom () has recently used a synthetic control method to try to evaluate the economic impact of the FTZM over a long time period (1920–1999), though his study relies on macro‐aggregates and not individual‐level data. The author concludes that the FTZM subsidy policy achieved its goal of promoting regional economic growth, though not all sectors benefited from the presumed positive spillovers from the manufacturing sector (in particular, agriculture). …”

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Poverty changes in Manaus: Legacy of a Brazilian free trade zone?

Castilho

Menéndez

Sztulman

2018

Review Development Economics

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This study contributes to the literature on the social impacts of Special Economic Zones by analyzing poverty changes in the Brazilian state of Amazonas, where the Free Trade Zone of Manaus (FTZM) is located. Using census data, statistical micro‐decompositions and counterfactual simulations, we show that labor income was the major driver of poverty declines during the 2000 to 2010 decade in the municipality of Manaus (and all the more so for households with members working in the FTZM, who were less poor to start with). Comparison with ex‐ante “similar” municipalities, in regard to socioeconomic and demographic criteria, corroborates the relative success of Manaus in terms of poverty reduction as well as the essential role played by labor income. Wage regressions also show a significant FTZM premium effect for workers, though diminishing over time. In the rest of the state of Amazonas, nonlabor income remains the main factor for poverty reduction and the FTZM appears to have limited spillover effects, even at short distances. Our contrasting results illustrate both the benefits and limitations that trade and industrial policies face in underprivileged areas and suggest that a better targeting of social policies is needed to improve distributional outcomes and spillovers for the whole state.

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“…Esse último resultado é contraintuitivo em face da relevância da indústria no PIM. O impacto no setor de acordo comPossebom (2017), "indicates that the main impact of the FTZM was due to lower import tariffs than those imposed in the rest of the country, attracting Brazilian tourists willing to buy imported goods at lower prices". O resultado global (impacto positivo no PIB per capita), por sua vez, parece intuitivo: é esperado que um município que recebeu incentivos federais e estaduais significativos tenha desempenho superior a outros municípios semelhantes que não tiveram acesso a esses benefícios.…”

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ZONA FRANCA DE MANAUS: uma revisão sistemática de impactos

Cavalcante¹

2020

Rev. InterEspaço

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MANAUS FREE TRADE ZONE: a systematic review of impactsZONA FRANCA DE MANAOS: una revisión sistemática de impactosRESUMOEmbora criada há mais de meio século, a Zona Franca de Manaus (ZFM) tem sido objeto de um número relativamente escasso de análises de seus impactos econômicos e sociais. O objetivo deste artigo é apresentar uma revisão sistemática das principais estatísticas e dos principais resultados de trabalhos selecionados sobre o tema. Buscou-se identificar trabalhos que ultrapassam a descrição da evolução das variáveis por meio, por exemplo, do uso de contrafactuais, regressões econométricas ou modelos de equilíbrio geral. A análise é precedida por uma breve revisão da literatura sobre zonas econômicas especiais (ZEE). Os resultados indicam que i) a ZFM tem impactos positivos nos níveis de renda e de bem-estar em Manaus, ainda que essa conclusão não seja unânime; ii) não há evidências conclusivas de que a ZFM contribui para a preservação ambiental da Amazônia; iii) os gastos tributários da União dirigidos à ZFM são estimados em R$ 28,7 bilhões (mais de R$ 380 mil por emprego direto gerado); e iv) embora o foco das ZEE recaia, de modo geral, sobre as exportações, o caso da ZFM é, em grande medida, singular em razão de seu foco no mercado interno. A ZFM é, portanto, do ponto de vista legal e do ponto de vista prático, essencialmente uma política de desenvolvimento regional (e não uma política de incentivo às exportações) e as análises sobre o tema devem amparar-se nessa premissa.Palavras-chave: Zona Franca de Manaus; Zonas Econômicas Especiais; Impactos; Gastos Tributários; Políticas de Desenvolvimento Regional.ABSTRACTAlthough created more than half a century ago, the Manaus Free Trade Zone (MFTZ) has been subject of a relatively reduced number of analysis of its economic and social impacts. The aim of this work is to present a systematic review of the man statistics and of the main results of a number of selected works about this subject. We sought to identify studies that go beyond the description of the evolution of variables through, for example, the use of counterfactuals, econometric regressions or general equilibrium models. The analysis is preceded by a brief review of the literature on special economic zones (SEZ). The results indicate that i) the MFTZ has positive impacts on the levels of income and well-being in Manaus, although this conclusion is not unanimous; ii) there is no conclusive evidence that the ZFM contributes to the environmental preservation of the Amazon; iii) federal tax expenditures directed to the ZFM are estimated in R$ 28.7 billion (more than R$ 380 thousand for direct employment generated); and iv) although the focus of SEZ falls, in general, on exports, the case of MFTZ is largely unique due to its focus on the domestic market. The MFTZ is, therefore, both legally and in practice, essentially a regional development policy (and not an export incentive policy) and the analyzes on the subject must be based on this assumption.Keywords: Manaus Free Trade Zone; Special Economic Zones; Impacts; Tax Expenditures; Regional Development Policies.RESUMENAunque creada hace más de medio siglo, la Zona Franca de Manaos (ZFM) ha sido objeto de relativamente pocos análisis de sus impactos económicos y sociales. El objetivo de este trabajo es presentar una revisión sistemática de las principales estadísticas y de los principales resultados de trabajos seleccionados sobre el tema. Buscamos identificar trabajos que van más allá de la descripción de la evolución de las variables mediante, por ejemplo, el uso de contrafácticos, regresiones econométricas o modelos de equilibrio general. Además, presentamos una breve revisión de la literatura sobre las zonas económicas especiales (ZEE). Los resultados indican que i) la ZFM tiene impactos positivos en los niveles de ingresos y bienestar en Manaos, aunque esta conclusión no es unánime; ii) no hay evidencia concluyente de que la ZFM contribuya a la preservación ambiental de la Amazonía; iii) los gastos federales de impuestos dirigidos a la ZFM se estiman en BRL 28,7 mil millones (más de BRL 380 mil por empleo directo generado); y iv) aunque el enfoque de las ZEE recae, en general, en las exportaciones, el caso de la ZFM es en gran medida único debido a su enfoque en el mercado interno. La ZFM es, por lo tanto, desde un punto de vista legal y desde un punto de vista práctico, esencialmente una política de desarrollo regional (y no una política de incentivos a la exportación) y los análisis sobre el tema deben basarse en esta premisa.Palabras clave: Zona Franca de Manaos; Zonas Económicas Especiales; Impactos; Gastos de Impuestos; Políticas de Desarrollo Regional.

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Free trade zone of Manaus: Na impact evaluation using the synthetic control method

Cited by 13 publications

References 0 publications

Synthetic Control Estimator: A Tool for Comparative Case Studies in Economic History

Synthetic Control Estimator: A Tool for Comparative Case Studies in Economic History

Poverty changes in Manaus: Legacy of a Brazilian free trade zone?

ZONA FRANCA DE MANAUS: uma revisão sistemática de impactos

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