Frank Notestein on Population Growth and Economic Development

Notestein, Frank W.

doi:10.2307/1973057

Cited by 22 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…As societies transition, the cost of raising a child becomes increasingly more expensive. Therefore, parents prefer to have fewer children because they want to allocate more resources per child ( Ashraf et al , 2013 ; Diebolt & Perrin, 2013 ; Galor, 2012 ; Herzer et al, 2012 ; Notestein, 1983 ; Prettner et al, 2013 ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As such, the demographic dividend is the result of changes in the population age structure that occur from declines in both child mortality and fertility during the third stage of the demographic transition period. This stage is characterized by a rapidly growing population with declining birth rates and low death rates, which increases the number of working-age individuals compared to the number of youth dependents ( Notestein, 1983 ). This large working-age cohort has the potential to boost the economy and improve living standards if a favorable policy environment is established.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Generating and capitalizing on the demographic dividend potential in sub-Saharan Africa: a conceptual framework from a systematic literature review

et al. 2020

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Background: Africa will double its population by 2050 and more than half will be below age 25. The continent has a unique opportunity to boost its socioeconomic welfare. This systematic literature review aims to develop a conceptual framework that identifies policies and programs that have provided a favorable environment for generating and harnessing a demographic dividend. This framework can facilitate sub-Saharan African countries’ understanding of needed actions to accelerate their demographic transition and capitalize on their demographic dividend potential. Methods: The search strategy was structured around three concepts: economic development, fertility, and sub-Saharan Africa. Databases used included PubMed and EconLit. An inductive approach was employed to expand the reference base further. Data were extracted using literature records following a checklist of items to include when reporting a systematic review suggested in the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) Statement. Results: The final review consisted of 78 peer-reviewed articles, ten reports from the gray literature, and one book. Data were categorized according to relevant demographic dividend typology: pre-dividend and early-dividend. The results from the literature review were synthesized into a framework consisting of five sectors for pre-dividend countries, namely 1) Governance and Economic Institutions, 2) Family Planning, 3) Maternal and Child Health, 4) Education, and 5) Women's Empowerment. An additional sector, 6) Labor Market, is added for early-dividend countries. These sectors must work together to attain a demographic dividend. Conclusions: A country's demographic transition stage must guide policy and programs. Most sub-Saharan African countries have prioritized job creation and employment for youth, yet their efforts to secure a productive labor market require preliminary and complementary investments in governance, family planning, maternal and child health, education, and women’s empowerment. Creating a favorable policy environment for generating and capitalizing on a demographic dividend can support their stated goals for development.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Generating and capitalizing on the demographic dividend potential in sub-Saharan Africa: a conceptual framework from a systematic literature review

et al. 2020

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“…In this paper we will argue that this hallmark event of human history unleashed powerful forces of social change, leading to modernization first in many of European and American societies, and somewhat later in parts of East Asia and the Pacific. Much as the demographic transition theory argues, the transition itself may have been triggered or at least accompanied by more general societal changes (Caldwell, 1982;Kirk, 1996;Notestein 1945Notestein , 1983van de Kaa, 1996, 398-402). The process itself of reproductive change, however, tended to generate social and economic synergies of its own.…”

Section: Population Decline and The Demographic Transitionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards long-term population decline: a discussion of relevant issues

Reher

2007

Eur J Population

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This paper contains thoughts on the process of imminent population decline under way in much of the developed world and quite possibly in other world regions as well. We are witnessing the beginnings of a vast trend change which promises to bring to a close a period of population growth that has lasted for several centuries. It can be shown that this great change is a byproduct of the demographic transition that unleashed a number of the forces leading to where we are today. The extent to which much of the developing world will follow the reproductive trends of the developed world, with their social and economic implications, is discussed. The decades ahead for much of the world will lead us into mostly uncharted territory that bears few similarities with past periods of population decline. The purpose of this paper is to stimulate reflection and debate on a subject that looms as perhaps the key social issue of the twenty-first century.Résumé Cet article contient des réflexions sur le processus de déclin de la population, déjà en cours dans une grande partie du monde développé, et vraisemblablement dans le reste du monde. Nous assistons actuellement au début d'un retournement de tendance qui devrait mettre fin à une période d'accroissement de la population qui a duré plusieurs siècles. On peut montrer que ce grand changement est un produit de la transition démographique, qui a déclenché des phénomènes menant à la situation actuelle. La question de savoir dans quelle mesure les pays en This paper was originally presented at the IUSSP XXV International Population Conference held in Tours (France) in July of 2005. Suggestions and criticisms offered up by many colleagues has been very useful. In particular, I would like to mention the very helpful indications of

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“…The US National Research Council (NRC) addressed the goal of sustainability transition as "a stabilizing world population meets its needs and reduces hunger and poverty while maintaining the planet's life support systems and living resources" (National Research Council 1999). Towards this end, several fundamental and systemic shifts are required on the global level (Crossman et al 2013;Gell-Mann 2010;Kates and Parris 2003), including (1) a demographic transition to low population growth rates (Caldwell et al 2006;Notestein 1983); (2) an economic transition eliminating poverty and hunger and switching to high-level needs that are less harmful to the environment; and (3) technological and institutional transitions which allow the demographic and economic transitions to happen while protecting the environment. Thus, the human-nature relationship would outgrow the hostile stage of "conquering nature" as reflected in the philosophical and political ideologies, through cooperative coevolution and integrated landscape planning and management (Farina 2000;Naveh 2000Naveh , 2005.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Social-ecological transformations of Inner Mongolia: a sustainability perspective

2016

Ecol Process

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Introduction: Sustainability requires the reconciling of human needs with the healthy natural ecosystem, which should be achieved within the grand course of industrialization and modernization. Systematic transitions on demography, economy, technology, and institutions are required, while different civilizations may take their respective paths. In this study, we analyze the social-ecological transitions of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China during the past century, focusing on major changes in its environmental, demographic, and socioeconomic conditions. Results: A two-level social-ecological system analysis framework was proposed, and four stages of transition were identified: traditional nomadism, primitive industrial civilization, collectivization era, and economic reform/opendoor policy era. Our analysis showed that Inner Mongolia has made great achievements in its socioeconomic domains but is faced with numerous challenging environmental problems. Overconsumption of resources and failure to curtail ecological degradation may lead to a trap of unsustainability. Conclusions: However, the slowing-down population growth, improvements of the economic structure, and many new sustainability initiatives and strong support from the central government together give hope for a sustainable future of the region.

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Frank Notestein on Population Growth and Economic Development

Cited by 22 publications

References 2 publications

Generating and capitalizing on the demographic dividend potential in sub-Saharan Africa: a conceptual framework from a systematic literature review

Generating and capitalizing on the demographic dividend potential in sub-Saharan Africa: a conceptual framework from a systematic literature review

Towards long-term population decline: a discussion of relevant issues

Social-ecological transformations of Inner Mongolia: a sustainability perspective

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