Framework for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment considering the effects of sea-level rise due to climate change

Alhamid, Abdul Kadir; Akiyama, Mitsuyoshi; Ishibashi, Hiroki; Aoki, Koki; Koshimura, Shunichi; Frangopol, Dan M.

doi:10.1016/j.strusafe.2021.102152

Cited by 26 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 84 publications

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“…With the broader perspectives on future disaster risk management for coastal active subduction regions, non-geological hazards can pose significant risks. For instance, relative sea level rise will affect the baseline water level for tsunami hazard and risk assessments and is an important factor for long-term infrastructure planning (Li et al, 2018;Alhamid et al, 2022). Coastal hazards, such as storm surges, could affect the integrity of the coastal defence structures in place and impacts of geological hazards could depend on those of preceding hazards.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future perspectives of earthquake-tsunami catastrophe modelling: From single-hazards to cascading and compounding multi-hazards

Goda

Risi

2023

Front. Built Environ.

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Probabilistic risk models for natural hazards, or natural catastrophe models, are indispensable tools for forecasting and quantifying the impacts of cascading and compounding earthquake-tsunami hazards. Their applications facilitate improved disaster risk mitigation and management. Uncertainties associated with forecasted multi-hazard impacts can be substantial, and practitioners and policymakers need guidance on implementing disaster risk reduction actions at all levels (local, regional, national, and international). In communicating such broad ranges of possible consequences with stakeholders, disaster scenarios need to be carefully selected and presented. This article reviews the state-of-the-art of earthquake, tsunami, and earthquake-tsunami catastrophe modelling and discusses future perspectives for earthquake-tsunami risk assessments.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future perspectives of earthquake-tsunami catastrophe modelling: From single-hazards to cascading and compounding multi-hazards

Goda

Risi

2023

Front. Built Environ.

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“…Nevertheless, these uncertainties associated with the ice sheet sea-level rise from previous studies were justified according to the expert elicitation and were carried out by disregarding the dependencies between sea-level rise components. The complete framework for probabilistic sea-level rise hazard assessments as complementary from previous research has been presented by Alhamid et al (2021) and discussed briefly herein.…”

Section: Framework For Probabilistic Sea-level Rise Hazard Assessmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The complete framework for probabilistic sea-level rise hazard assessments have been presented by Alhamid et al (2021). First, the regional sea-level rise, defined as the sea-level rise in a particular location in the ocean, is estimated by multiplying each global mean sea-level rise component (i.e., the average value of sea-level rise over the ocean) with its corresponding spatial variability (hereafter referred to as sea-level fingerprint) (Jackson & Jevrejeva, 2016).…”

Section: Framework For Probabilistic Sea-level Rise Hazard Assessmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Investigating the Effects of Climate Change on Structural Actions

Orcesi

O’Connor

Diamantidis

et al. 2022

Structural Engineering International

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The changing climate with resulting more extreme weather events will likely impact infrastructure assets and services. This phenomenon can present direct threats to the assets as well as significant indirect effects for those relying on the services those assets deliver. Such threats are path-dependent and place-specific, as they strongly depend on current and future climate variability, location, asset design life, function and condition. One key question is how climate change is likely to increase both the probability and magnitude of extreme weather events under different scenarios of climate change. To address this issue, this paper investigates selected effects of climate change and their consequences on structural performance, in the context of evolving loading scenarios in three different continental regions: Europe, North America, and Asia. The aim is to investigate some main place-specific changes of the exposure in terms of intensity/frequency of extreme events as well as the associated challenges, considering some recent activities of members of the IABSE TG6.1. Climate change can significantly affect built infrastructure and the society by increasing the occurrence and magnitude of extreme events and increasing potential losses. Therefore, specific relationships relating hazard levels and structural vulnerability to climate change effects should be determined.

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“…There are also several verification studies by FEM and other numerical approaches dealing with fluid-structure interaction problems [21]- [26]. Finally, one may refer to an investigation dealing with the behavior of specific bridges [27]- [32].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Simple Mathematical Model for Extreme Flood Actions on Superstructures of Coastal Bridges

Michaltsos

Sophianopoulos

Konstantakopoulos

2022

Engineering Science & Technology

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Coastal bridges may be strongly affected by extreme flood actions (mainly tsunamis), which may be caused by earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and other underwater explosions (including detonations, landslides, glaciers calvings, meteorite impacts, and other disturbances) above or below water. A simple mathematical model for analysis, processing, and easy yet effective mathematical manipulation is proposed and studied with the aid of simple principles of hydraulics, for investigating the aforementioned effects, in order to avoid rigorous analyses using ocean and coastal engineering. The main idea is based on the investigation of a water vein squirted from a height with a constant horizontal initial velocity, and the analysis of the critical wave in water veins. The results obtained, including the dynamics of deck superstructures and safety issues, reveal the critical situation for avoiding the devastating phenomena of rocking, overturning, and shifting in exemplary small and large coastal bridges. It is found that larger (longer) bridges exhibit acceptable deformations, contrary to smaller ones, while the overturning phenomenon seems to be the most critical one for both types of bridges.

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Framework for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment considering the effects of sea-level rise due to climate change

Cited by 26 publications

References 84 publications

Future perspectives of earthquake-tsunami catastrophe modelling: From single-hazards to cascading and compounding multi-hazards

Future perspectives of earthquake-tsunami catastrophe modelling: From single-hazards to cascading and compounding multi-hazards

Investigating the Effects of Climate Change on Structural Actions

A Simple Mathematical Model for Extreme Flood Actions on Superstructures of Coastal Bridges

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