Framework for Modelling Economic Impacts of Invasive Species, Applied to Pine Wood Nematode in Europe

Abstract

BackgroundEconomic impact assessment of invasive species requires integration of information on pest entry, establishment and spread, valuation of assets at risk and market consequences at large spatial scales. Here we develop such a framework and demonstrate its application to the pinewood nematode, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, which threatens the European forestry industry. The effect of spatial resolution on the assessment result is analysed.Methodology/Principal FindingsDirect economic impacts resulting from wood loss are computed using partial budgeting at regional scale, while impacts on social welfare are computed by a partial equilibrium analysis of the round wood market at EU scale. Substantial impacts in terms of infested stock are expected in Portugal, Spain, Southern France, and North West Italy but not elsewhere in EU in the near future. The cumulative value of lost forestry stock over a period of 22 years (2008–2030), assuming no regulatory control measures, is estimated at €22 billion. The greatest yearly loss of stock is expected to occur in the period 2014–2019, with a peak of three billion euros in 2016, but stabilizing afterwards at 300–800 million euros/year. The reduction in social welfare follows the loss of stock with considerable delay because the yearly harvest from the forest is only 1.8%. The reduction in social welfare for the downstream round wood market is estimated at €218 million in 2030, whereby consumers incur a welfare loss of €357 million, while producers experience a €139 million increase, due to higher wood prices. The societal impact is expected to extend to well beyond the time horizon of the analysis, and long after the invasion has stopped.Conclusions/SignificancePinewood nematode has large economic consequences for the conifer forestry industry in the EU. A change in spatial resolution affected the calculated directed losses by 24%, but did not critically affect conclusions.

Worldwide invasion routes of the pinewood nematode: What can we infer from population genetics analyses?

“…Outside North America (widely recognized as the native range of this species, Dropkin et al 1981; Kiritani and Morimoto 2004;Wingfield et al 1982), PWN is the causal agent of pine wilt disease (Mamiya 1972(Mamiya , 1976(Mamiya , 1983 and it poses a serious threat to pine forests worldwide, due to ecological and economic consequences of infestation (Mamiya 1988;Soliman et al 2012;Suzuki 2002;Vicente et al 2011). It was first observed outside its native range in Japan, in 1905, near Nagasaki (Mamiya 1988, where 28 % of the 2.1 million ha of pine forest was found to be infested in 2000 (Mamiya 2004).…”

Specifically Expressed Genes of the Nematode Bursaphelenchus Xylophilus Involved with Early Interactions with Pine Trees

“…B. xylophilus is considered to be a native of North America [11], where the local forests are generally resistant or tolerant [12]. B. xylophilus causes severe economic, environmental, and social impacts [13,14] in non-indigenous areas and it has attracted attention because of its high pathogenicity in host trees. As the main pathogenic agent of PWD [15], PWNs lead to the death of pine trees within several months, especially between May and September.…”

First Insights into the Genetic Diversity of the Pinewood Nematode in Its Native Area Using New Polymorphic Microsatellite Loci

“…In light of the significant risks for European forests along with environmental, economic and social impacts [15], there is an urgent need to develop effective pest management of PWN. In particular, it is critical to understand the invasion and colonization of this pest, including the risk of non-vectored spread of PWN to healthy forests.…”