Framework for COPD forecasting in the UK using weather and climate change predictions

Hemming, Deborah; Colman, Andrew; James, P. K.; Kaye, Nigel B.; Marno, Penny; McNeall, Doug; McCarthy, Rachel; Laing-Morton, T; Palin, Erika J.; Sachon, P; Sarran, Christophe; Taylor, I. H.

doi:10.1088/1755-1307/6/14/142021

Cited by 3 publications

(7 citation statements)

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“…9 Data presented to date show that this method is effective in predicting periods of increased COPD exacerbations and hospital admissions. 9,11 The COPD Healthy Outlook 1 service uses this model to predict periods of increased COPD exacerbations and hospital admissions joined together with interactive telephone alerts associated with a model of patients education to reduce exacerbation rates and hospital admissions. 10 Our study shows that this model of health forecasting had no effect on reducing hospital admissions in patients with mild-to-moderate COPD.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The full details of the Healthy Outlook 1 have been previously described and can be found on the Met Office's web address. [9][10][11] All patients on the COPD Quality Outcome Framework (QOF) registers from 3 primary care practices in Salford, UK, with mild-to-moderate airflow obstruction, as defined by the British Thoracic Society (BTS), 12 were invited through their GPs to participate. All those who consented to participate received the full information pack from the Met Office.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It also includes a patient education pack that is available in multiple languages and provides practical advice and information to patients in order to reduce exacerbation risk. 10,11 The service aims to alert patients of forecasted periods of cold weather via automated phone calls that provide interactive telephone advice and prompt patients to report symptoms early and to ensure they have enough medications. General practitioners (GPs) were informed by the Met Office before and after patients are contacted, and all enquiries by patients were dealt with by GPs.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The effect of COPD health forecasting on hospitalisation and health care utilisation in patients with mild-to-moderate COPD

et al. 2011

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Exacerbations are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) as well as having a large impact on health care utilisation (HCU). They are more frequent during periods of cold weather with a corresponding increase in hospital admissions. It has been hypothesised that COPD exacerbations and admissions can be reduced by predicting periods of cold weather coupled with patients' alerts and education. Healthy Outlook 1 service provided by the Meteorological Office, UK, was used in patients with mild-to-moderate COPD who consented to participate from three primary care practices. Outcome measures included data relating to hospital admissions for acute exacerbations as well as HCU for these patients during the intervention period (1 Nov 2008À31 Mar 2009) and compared for the same patients and same period 12 months earlier (1 Nov 2007À31 Mar 2008. A cost analysis comparing treatment cost per patient for the two periods was also conducted. A total of 157 (34% of target COPD population) patients took part in the project, with five weather alerts generated (first alert reached 150 patients; second reached 146; third reached 138 patients; fourth reached 137 patients; and the fifth reached 125 patients) during the intervention period. There was a non-statistically-significant increase in hospital admissions per patient (0.07À0.076; p ¼ 0.83). The number of general practice visits per patient dropped from 4.9 to 3.8 (p ¼ 0.001), with drop in average number of visits to patients by out-of-hours services from 0.52À0.14 (p ¼ 0.013). The average number of home consultations provided by general practice increased from 0.05 to 0.92 (p ¼ 0.001). Cost per patient increased by an average of £142 (95% CI -£128 to £412). This anticipatory care model was not associated with reduction in admissions from COPD exacerbations. Further research is required to fully understand its role in the management of patients with COPD.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The effect of COPD health forecasting on hospitalisation and health care utilisation in patients with mild-to-moderate COPD

et al. 2011

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“…Forecasting is a key component in the practice of medicine, with the main purpose of improving both health service provision and individual patient outcome [10,24,30,39,40]. For example, the United Kingdom Meteorological Office developed a health forecasting service for COPD, which provides health alerts to both individuals and health service providers through an automated call system [7,24,41]. This forecast combines a rule-based model that predicts risks based on environmental conditions, with an anticipatory care intervention to provide information, which is then communicated.…”

Section: Defining Health Forecasting and Related Terminologiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Providers make critical decisions and resource allocations to meet the potential demand for health care services. Some of the complexities associated with these types of health care provider actions could range from providing basic social care for early symptoms, to using sophisticated staff and facilities and attending to extreme events [7,24,41]. Meanwhile, being able to meet the demand for a health forecast that provides ample time for preparatory activities often requires the use of a good forecasting technique and ample reliable data.…”

Section: The Challenges In Developing and Using Health Forecastsmentioning

confidence: 99%

An overview of health forecasting

Soyiri

Reidpath

2012

Environ Health Prev Med

121

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Health forecasting is a novel area of forecasting, and a valuable tool for predicting future health events or situations such as demands for health services and healthcare needs. It facilitates preventive medicine and health care intervention strategies, by pre-informing health service providers to take appropriate mitigating actions to minimize risks and manage demand. Health forecasting requires reliable data, information and appropriate analytical tools for the prediction of specific health conditions or situations. There is no single approach to health forecasting, and so various methods have often been adopted to forecast aggregate or specific health conditions. Meanwhile, there are no defined health forecasting horizons (time frames) to match the choices of health forecasting methods/approaches that are often applied. The key principles of health forecasting have not also been adequately described to guide the process. This paper provides a brief introduction and theoretical analysis of health forecasting. It describes the key issues that are important for health forecasting, including: definitions, principles of health forecasting, and the properties of health data, which influence the choices of health forecasting methods. Other matters related to the value of health forecasting, and the general challenges associated with developing and using health forecasting services are discussed. This overview is a stimulus for further discussions on standardizing health forecasting approaches and methods that will facilitate health care and health services delivery.

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A modelling framework for developing early warning systems of COPD emergency admissions

Johnson

Gatheral

Knight

et al. 2021

Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology

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Framework for COPD forecasting in the UK using weather and climate change predictions

Cited by 3 publications

References 0 publications

The effect of COPD health forecasting on hospitalisation and health care utilisation in patients with mild-to-moderate COPD

The effect of COPD health forecasting on hospitalisation and health care utilisation in patients with mild-to-moderate COPD

An overview of health forecasting

A modelling framework for developing early warning systems of COPD emergency admissions

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