Four approaches to anticipatory climate governance: Different conceptions of the future and implications for the present

Abstract

In times of accelerating earth system transformations and their potentially disruptive societal consequences, imagining and governing the future is now a core challenge for sustainability research and practice. Much social science and sustainability science scholarship increasingly engages with the future. There is, however, a lack of scrutiny of how the future is envisioned in these literatures, and with what implications for governance in the present. This article analyses these two aspects, building on the concept of "anticipatory governance." We understand anticipatory governance to broadly mean governing in the present to adapt to or shape uncertain futures. We review perspectives within public policy, futures studies, social-ecological systems, environmental policy and governance, transition studies, science and technology studies, and responsible research and innovation literatures. All these literatures engage explicitly or implicitly with the notion of anticipatory governance, yet from distinct ontological and epistemological starting points. Through our review, we identify four approaches to anticipatory governance that differ with regard to (a) their conceptions of and engagement with the future; (b) their implications for actions to be taken in the present; and (c) the ultimate end to be realized through anticipatory governance. We then map onto these four approaches a diverse set of methods and tools of anticipation that each engages with. In concluding, we discuss how these four approaches provide a useful analytical lens through which to assess ongoing practices of anticipatory governance in the climate and sustainability realm.

Advancing a toolkit of diverse futures approaches for global environmental assessments

“…Developing ways to combine under-utilized and novel, but high potential scenario approaches in ways that make them more comparable, transparent, and accessible will allow for opportunities for closer integration with more traditional scenario approaches. A review by Muiderman et al (2020) across research communities engaging with futures and anticipatory governance describes a typology of aims that generally underlie scenarios research. Three of these are relevant for GEAs: 1) risk assessment and mitigation; 2) exploring diverse, possible futures to enhance preparedness; and 3) collectively envisioning desirable futures.…”

“…Such an extended mandate is not a new suggestion (Hulme et al 2011), but in this paper we offer a specific means by which to move in this direction, starting with identifying a package of tools to navigate the uncertainty of the future in different ways. This does not just mean integrating and combining approaches, but, it also means recognizing, and integrating different aims with which futures are explored, from risk assessment to navigating a wider range of plausible futures to imagining new, desirable future worlds (Muiderman et al 2020).…”

Water and Climate Governance in Deltas: On the Relevance of Anticipatory, Interactive, and Transformative Modes of Governance

“…Future studies should incorporate systems thinking to deal with complexity and uncertainty and should also integrate insights from relevant disciplines-including legal studies, environmental governance, ecology, environmental economics, climatology, physical geography, and urban and regional planning. To understand the process-and future-oriented images of delta transformation and resilience, we also argue that concepts from the fields of anticipatory governance [85][86][87][88], transformative governance [89][90][91][92], and interactive and integrative modes of governance [29,40,[69][70][71]93,94] would be useful.…”

“…The concept of anticipatory governance would be useful as it underlines the importance of steering or governing in the present to engage, adapt, or shape uncertain futures [87,88]. In governing an uncertain future, the transformation process is crucial to enforce systemic, fundamental changes.…”

Application of IoT in Healthcare: Keys to Implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals

“…The use of intelligent systems, IoT, and advanced engineering systems has played an essential role in the solutions put forward for pandemic management and will continue to gain importance in the future. Institutions at all levels are committed to the energy transition and sustainable development, and we must take them into account in any smart environment developments, research, and implementations [ 18 , 19 , 20 ].…”