Fostering assumption-based stress-test thinking in managing groundwater systems: learning to avoid failures due to basic dynamics

Prediction under uncertainty as a boundary problem: A general formulation using Iterative Closed Question Modelling

“…With the boundary formulation of prediction, assessing uncertainty amounts to investigating whether the answer might be wrong (Guillaume and El Sawah, 2014). In the presence of uncertainty, many alternative model scenarios are permitted by the agreed assumptions (epistemic boundary), such that prediction of uncertainty can be seen as the process of ascertaining whether the normative distinction made by the closed question is unambiguously resolved with respect to the epistemic boundaries set by agreed assumptions, i.e.…”

Can we manage groundwater? A method to determine the quantitative testability of groundwater management plans

“…Many numerical modelling studies have also investigated the impact of various aquifer management decisions [ Government of Western Australia , ; Guillaume and El Sawah , ]. Gallagher [] developed the Groundwater Operational Management Package (GWOMP), an integrated MODFLOW‐MT3DMS‐SEAWAT modeling package that simulates an aquifer under various management regimes to allow for testing of allocation volumes, carryover, and groundwater trading with a range of triggers and operational rules.…”

“…These management investigative studies show that the feedback cycles present in many socioenvironmental systems may, through interactions with management under inadequate system knowledge, be stimulated in unanticipated ways leading to system failure. This concept of stress testing management was explored in a hydrogeological context by Guillaume and El Sawah [], who used simple one and two cell groundwater models that captured aquifer system dynamics and satisfied predetermined assumptions, to allow stakeholders to explore conditions under which management plans succeeded and failed to achieve objective conditions. Because each policy failed under particular circumstances, insight into system behavior under management was gleaned, plan limitations identified, and the fact that inappropriate preconceptions can result in management failure highlighted.…”

“…, among others. These studies do not, however, investigate if sequential management decisions result in successful resource management or assess the effectiveness of the plan separate from the state of the aquifer.Many numerical modelling studies have also investigated the impact of various aquifer management decisions[Government of Western Australia, 2009;Guillaume and El Sawah, 2014] Gallagher [2015b]. developed the Groundwater Operational Management Package (GWOMP), an integrated MODFLOW-MT3DMS-SEAWAT modeling package that simulates an aquifer under various management regimes to allow for testing of allocation volumes, carryover, and groundwater trading with a range of triggers and operational rules.…”