Abstract. Climate change affects on insect populations in many ways: it can cause a shift in geographical spread, abundance, or diversity, it can change the location, the timing and the magnitude of outbreaks of pests and it can define the phenological or even the genetic properties of the species. Long-time investigations of special insect populations, simulation models and scenario studies give us very important information about the response of the insects far away and near to our century. Getting to know the potential responses of insect populations to climate change makes us possible to evaluate the adaptation of pest management alternatives as well as to formulate our future management policy. In this paper we apply two simple models, in order to introduce a complex case study for a Sycamore lace bug population. We test how the model works in case the whether conditions are very different from those in our days. Thus, besides we can understand the processes that happen in present, we can analyze the effects of a possible climate change, as well.
Keywords: climate change, insects, pest management, simulation, agriculture
Introduction and AimsSimulation is the ultimate tool for forecasting the effect of climate and other environmental factors on the ecosystem, since the real circumstances of future cannot be examined empirically. However, it may take several years to reach the stage when these forecasts will be usable in the agriculture since the longer climate forecasts are not yet good enough [18] In our paper we refer to one of our earlier population dynamical food web biomass model together with a phenology model based on the food web model [33], [34]. In the food web model the seasonal weather aspects, the nutrient content of soil and the biotic interactions are considered. To simulate the interactions, a discrete difference equation system was used. The general equation of the model is based on three terms: the first one is to express the activity of the individual depending on the temperature, the second one is to describe the effect of the quality and the quantity of the nutrient of the populations and the third one is to display the effect of the predators.Besides quantitative (biomass) changes, however, there are also seasonal qualitative changes during the evolution of the entities. These changes are described by phenology.