Fossil-extraction bans are not enough to achieve the Paris agreement but can facilitate it

Abstract

Given concerns about the ambition and effectiveness of current climate pledges, a case has been made for the integration of demand-side policies such as carbon pricing with supply-side bans on fossil fuel extraction. However, little is known about their interplay in the context of climate stabilization. Here, we present the first multi-model assessment quantifying the effectiveness of supply-side policies and their interactions with demand-side ones. We design narratives of fossil fuel bans and explore a variety of scenarios with four process-based integrated assessment models. We find that supply side treaties reduce emissions but not enough to stabilize temperature increase to well below 2°C. When combined with demand-side policies, supply side policies reduce the required carbon price to meet the Paris goals, dampen reliance on CO2 removal and increase investment in renewable energy while increasing fossil producer revenues. The results indicate the opportunity to integrate price-based policies with fossil bans when exploring climate neutrality pathways.