Fossil Energy in Economic Growth: A Study of the Energy Direction of Technical Change, 1950-2012

Semieniuk, Gregor

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2795424

Cited by 12 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 81 publications

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“…The tight coupling between global energy use and GDP [67][68][69] can be explained because of -not in spite of-decades of global energy efficiency investment. Policy efforts to decouple energy from GDP are therefore more challenging than we may have supposed.…”

Section: The Decoupling Challengementioning

confidence: 99%

Thermodynamic Efficiency Gains and their Role as a Key ‘Engine of Economic Growth’

et al. 2018

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Increasing energy efficiency is commonly viewed as providing a key stimulus to economic growth, through investment in efficient technologies, reducing energy use and costs, enabling productivity gains, and generating jobs. However, this view is received wisdom, as empirical validation has remained elusive. A central problem is that current energy-economy models are not thermodynamically consistent, since they do not include the transformation of energy in physical terms from primary to end-use stages. In response, we develop the UK MAcroeconometric Resource COnsumption (MARCO-UK) model, the first econometric economy-wide model to explicitly include thermodynamic efficiency and end energy use (energy services). We find gains in thermodynamic efficiency are a key ‘engine of economic growth’, contributing 25% of the increases to gross domestic product (GDP) in the UK over the period of 1971–2013. This confirms an underrecognised role for energy in enabling economic growth. We attribute most of the thermodynamic efficiency gains to endogenised technical change. We also provide new insights into how the ‘efficiency-led growth engine’ mechanism works in the whole economy. Our results imply a slowdown in thermodynamic efficiency gains will constrain economic growth, whilst future energy-GDP decoupling will be harder to achieve than we suppose. This confirms the imperative for economic models to become thermodynamically consistent.

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Section: The Decoupling Challengementioning

confidence: 99%

Thermodynamic Efficiency Gains and their Role as a Key ‘Engine of Economic Growth’

et al. 2018

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“…Historically, however, energy use per worker, = ⁄ , tends to increase with labor productivity (Georgescu-Roegen, 1975;Cleveland et al, 1984;Ayres and Warr, 2009;Semieniuk, 2016). Given the identity noted by Taylor (9) we find that 1⁄ = −1 .…”

mentioning

confidence: 56%

“…Our economy is calibrated to 2010 with global output of $60 trillion and capital stock of $200 trillion. Population is 6 billion people, employment roughly 3 billion, and global energy use per person about 2.5 kW/person (Semieniuk, 2016). Initial values for the climate system are taken from Nordhaus (2014).…”

Section: Appendixmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic Growth, Income Distribution, and Climate Change

Rezai

Taylor

Foley

2018

Ecological Economics

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“…Ecological economist perspectives on output growth range from critical questioning of whether, on an empirical level, high growth rates are compatible with strong environmental policies (for example, Kallis 2017) to an outward normative rejection of 'growth fetishism' (for example, Spash 2015). Empirically, energy use is closely linked with labor productivity, as an increase in output per worker (labor productivity) entails a rise in energy use per worker (Semieniuk 2016;Taylor 2009). Historically, the increase in energy use to increase labor productivity was powered by fossil fuels.…”

Section: Ecological Economists On the Role Of Labor Markets In A Soci...mentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of labor in a socio-ecological transition: combining post-Keynesian and ecological economics perspectives*

Strunk,

Ederer,

Rezai

2022

European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies Intervention

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This article investigates the role of labor in post-Keynesian economics and proposes an integration with ecological macroeconomics. Although post-Keynesians have to date not engaged extensively with environmental limits, there is an increasing interest in modeling policy proposals by ecological economists. While ecological and post-Keynesian economists share many ways of conceptualizing labor that are distinct from the mainstream, it is unclear how these feed into modeling, since post-Keynesians model labor as a residual and not as a policy variable per se. In fact, post-Keynesians have traditionally focused on targeting employment via targeting aggregate goods demand, rather than targeting it directly. This paper argues that by complementing this demand-side view with post-Keynesian perspectives on labor supply, one can arrive at a post-Keynesian labor theory that offers entry points for ecological theorizing.

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Fossil Energy in Economic Growth: A Study of the Energy Direction of Technical Change, 1950-2012

Cited by 12 publications

References 81 publications

Thermodynamic Efficiency Gains and their Role as a Key ‘Engine of Economic Growth’

Thermodynamic Efficiency Gains and their Role as a Key ‘Engine of Economic Growth’

Economic Growth, Income Distribution, and Climate Change

The role of labor in a socio-ecological transition: combining post-Keynesian and ecological economics perspectives*

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