Forster and modernism

Stevenson, Randall

doi:10.1017/ccol0521834759.014

Cited by 9 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…Statistical models, figures, and tables were generated using R studio version 2023.6.0.421 [28]. The ‘epiR’ package was used to calculate DENV infection incidence rate in all participants and the risk of dengue given DENV infection over the entire observation period [29]. The ‘geepack’ package was used to conduct the GEE, following an exchangeable correlation structure to account for repeated measurements of the same individual recorded annually [30].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Obesity is associated with increased pediatric dengue virus infection and disease: A 9-year cohort study in Managua, Nicaragua

Mercado-Hernandez,

Myers,

Carillo

et al. 2024

Preprint

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BackgroundObesity is on the rise globally in adults and children, including in tropical areas where diseases such as dengue have a substantial burden, particularly in children. Obesity impacts the risk of severe dengue disease; however, the impact on dengue virus (DENV) infection and dengue cases remains an open question.MethodsWe used 9 years of data from 5,940 children in the Pediatric Dengue Cohort Study in Nicaragua to examine whether pediatric obesity is associated with increased susceptibility to DENV infection and symptomatic presentation. Analysis was performed using Generalized Estimating Equations adjusted for age, sex, and pre-infection DENV antibody titers.ResultsFrom 2011 to 2019, children contributed 26,273 person-years of observation, and we observed an increase in the prevalence of overweight (from 12% to 17%) and obesity (from 7% to 13%). There were 1,682 DENV infections and 476 dengue cases in the study population. Compared to participants with normal weight, participants with obesity had higher odds of DENV infection (Adjusted Odds Ratio [aOR] 1.21, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.42) and higher odds of dengue disease given infection (aOR 1.59, 95% CI 1.15-2.19). Children with obesity infected with DENV showed increased odds of presenting fever (aOR 1.46, 95% CI 1.05-2.02), headache (aOR 1.51, 95% CI 1.07-2.14), and rash (aOR 2.26, 95% CI 1.49-3.44) when compared with children with normal weight.ConclusionsOur results indicate that obesity is associated with increased susceptibility to DENV infection and dengue cases in children, independently of age, sex, and pre-infection DENV antibody titers.Key pointsWe describe a doubling in the prevalence of obesity in a cohort of 5,940 Nicaraguan children followed over 9 years. Children with obesity were more likely to be infected with dengue virus and had higher risk of developing dengue disease.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Obesity is associated with increased pediatric dengue virus infection and disease: A 9-year cohort study in Managua, Nicaragua

Mercado-Hernandez,

Myers,

Carillo

et al. 2024

Preprint

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“…The model was developed and implemented in the R software environment, version 4.0.3 [31], including the R packages epiR [32], mc2d [33], gplots [34] and RColorBrewer [35]. The time step for the analysis was one month, consistent with the reporting frequency for the dengue surveillance system in Yogyakarta city.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Utility of surveillance data for planning for dengue elimination in Yogyakarta, Indonesia: a scenario tree modelling approach

Bannister-Tyrrell

Hillman

Indriani

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Introduction Field trials and mathematical modelling studies suggest that elimination of dengue transmission may be possible through widespread release ofAedes aegyptimosquitoes infected with the insect bacteriumWolbachia pipientis(wMel strain), in conjunction with routine dengue control activities. This study aimed to develop a modelling framework to guide planning for the potential elimination of locally-acquired dengue in Yogyakarta, a city of almost 400,000 people in Java, Indonesia. Methods A scenario tree modelling approach was used to estimate the sensitivity of the dengue surveillance system (including routine hospital-based reporting and primary-care based enhanced surveillance), and time required to demonstrate elimination of locally-acquired dengue in Yogyakarta city, assuming the detected incidence of dengue decreases to zero in the future. Age and gender were included as risk factors for dengue, and detection nodes included the probability of seeking care, probability of sample collection and testing, diagnostic test sensitivity, and probability of case notification. Parameter distributions were derived from health system data or estimated by expert opinion. Alternative simulations were defined based on changes to key parameter values, separately and in combination. Results For the default simulation, median surveillance system sensitivity was 0.131 (95% PI 0.111 - 0.152) per month. Median confidence in dengue elimination reached 80% after a minimum of 13 months of zero detected dengue cases and 90% confidence after 25 months, across different scenarios. The alternative simulations investigated produced relatively small changes in median system sensitivity and time to elimination. Conclusion This study suggests that with a combination of hospital-based surveillance and enhanced clinic-based surveillance for dengue, an acceptable level of confidence (80% probability) in the elimination of locally acquired dengue can be reached within 2 years. Increasing the surveillance system sensitivity could shorten the time to first ascertainment of elimination of dengue and increase the level of confidence in elimination.

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“…The model was developed and implemented in the R software environment, V.4.0.3,32 including the R packages epiR,33 mc2d,34 gplots35 and RColorBrewer 36. The time step for the analysis was 1 month, consistent with the reporting frequency for the dengue surveillance system in Yogyakarta city.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Utility of surveillance data for planning for dengue elimination in Yogyakarta, Indonesia: a scenario-tree modelling approach

Bannister-Tyrrell,

Hillman,

Indriani

et al. 2023

BMJ Glob Health

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IntroductionField trials and modelling studies suggest that elimination of dengue transmission may be possible through widespread release ofAedes aegyptimosquitoes infected with the insect bacteriumWolbachia pipientis(wMel strain), in conjunction with routine dengue control activities. This study aimed to develop a modelling framework to guide planning for the potential elimination of locally acquired dengue in Yogyakarta, a city of almost 400 000 people in Java, Indonesia.MethodsA scenario-tree modelling approach was used to estimate the sensitivity of the dengue surveillance system (including routine hospital-based reporting and primary-care-based enhanced surveillance), and time required to demonstrate elimination of locally acquired dengue in Yogyakarta city, assuming the detected incidence of dengue decreases to zero in the future. Age and gender were included as risk factors for dengue, and detection nodes included the probability of seeking care, probability of sample collection and testing, diagnostic test sensitivity and probability of case notification. Parameter distributions were derived from health system data or estimated by expert opinion. Alternative simulations were defined based on changes to key parameter values, separately and in combination.ResultsFor the default simulation, median surveillance system sensitivity was 0.131 (95% PI 0.111 to 0.152) per month. Median confidence in dengue elimination reached 80% after a minimum of 13 months of zero detected dengue cases and 90% confidence after 25 months, across different scenarios. The alternative simulations investigated produced relatively small changes in median system sensitivity and time to elimination.ConclusionThis study suggests that with a combination of hospital-based surveillance and enhanced clinic-based surveillance for dengue, an acceptable level of confidence (80% probability) in the elimination of locally acquired dengue can be reached within 2 years. Increasing the surveillance system sensitivity could shorten the time to first ascertainment of elimination of dengue and increase the level of confidence in elimination.

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Forster and modernism

Cited by 9 publications

References 0 publications

Obesity is associated with increased pediatric dengue virus infection and disease: A 9-year cohort study in Managua, Nicaragua

Obesity is associated with increased pediatric dengue virus infection and disease: A 9-year cohort study in Managua, Nicaragua

Utility of surveillance data for planning for dengue elimination in Yogyakarta, Indonesia: a scenario tree modelling approach

Utility of surveillance data for planning for dengue elimination in Yogyakarta, Indonesia: a scenario-tree modelling approach

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