Formula for success: Multilevel modelling of Formula One Driver and Constructor performance, 1950–2014

Abstract

This paper uses random-coefficient models and (a) finds rankings of who are the best formula 1 (F1) drivers of all time, conditional on team performance; (b) quantifies how much teams and drivers matter; and (c) quantifies how team and driver effects vary over time and under different racing conditions. The points scored by drivers in a race (standardised across seasons and Normalised) is used as the response variable in a cross-classified multilevel model that partitions variance into team, team-year and driver levels. These effects are then allowed to vary by year, track type and weather conditions using complex variance functions. Juan Manuel Fangio is found to be the greatest driver of all time. Team effects are shown to be more important than driver effects (and increasingly so over time), although their importance may be reduced in wet weather and on street tracks. A sensitivity analysis was undertaken with various forms of the dependent variable; this did not lead to substantively different conclusions. We argue that the approach can be applied more widely across the social sciences, to examine individual and team performance under changing conditions.

Measuring competitive balance in Formula One racing

“…He also presents survivor models for the constructors' and drivers' championships, and attempts to identify success factors for winning in F1 (Mourao 2017(Mourao , 2018. Along similar lines, Stadelmann and Eichenberger (2008), Philipps (2014) and Bell et al (2016) try to identify the best driver in F1 history by attempting to isolate the impact from the driver on success and separate it from other important influence factors, such as the competitiveness of the race car. Gutiérrez and Lozano (2014) use the data envelopment analysis (DEA) method to discuss the relative efficiencies of F1 team budgets.…”

Differences between racing and non-racing drivers: A simulator study using eye-tracking

“…Motorsport has evolved from the recreational level into a high-profile international sport attracting millions of viewers worldwide [ 1 , 2 ]. The goal of a racing driver is typically to achieve the fastest possible lap time by driving the vehicle at the limit of tire grip in an optimal manner [ 3 , 4 ].…”

Analysis of the Effectiveness of Toro Rosso Team as a Supporting Team of Red Bull Concern in Formula 1

“…The background information was the performance data of Toro Rosso and its drivers, facts about the connection of Toro Rosso and Red Bull and the role of Toro Rosso in the expansion of Red Bull into Formula 1 (Tsiotsou, 2012). The statistics was interpreted to create specific metrics and formulate clear and concrete conclusions about the success of Toro Rosso team (Bell et al, 2016).…”