The mechanism for the oxidation of p-tolylmethanol to p-tolualdehyde catalyzed by a Cu/pytl-β-cyclodextrin/TEMPO (TEMPO = 2,2,6,6-tetramethylpiperidinyl-1-oxy) catalytic system under air in neat water is fully investigated by density functional theory (DFT). Four possible pathways (paths A → D) are presented. The calculated TOF = 0.67 h −1 for path A is consistent with the experimental TOF = 1.9 h −1 but much lower than that for path D (TOF = 1.1 × 10 5 h −1 ). The results demonstrate that path A is the dominant pathway under the optimal experimental conditions, even though path D is more kinetically favorable. This is because the concentration of precatalyst 11 [(pytl-β-CD)Cu II (OH)] in path D is too low to start path D, so p-tolylmethanol oxidation can only proceed via path A. This finding implies that the relative concentration of precatalysts in a one-pot synthesis experiment plays a vital role in the aerobic alcohol oxidation reaction. Based on this finding, we speculate that the direct use of the presynthesized precatalyst 11 or addition of an appropriate amount of NaOH to the reaction solution, but with the total amount of the base added unchanged, is a good way to improve its catalytic activity. Meanwhile, the solvent water was not found to directly participate in the catalytic active sites for the oxidation of alcohols but rather inhibited it by forming the hydrogen-bonded network.