Formal Employment and Organized Crime: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Colombia

Abstract

The CEGA Working Paper Series showcases ongoing and completed research by faculty affiliates of the Center. CEGA Working Papers employ rigorous evaluation techniques to measure the impact of large-scale social and economic development programs, and are intended to encourage discussion and feedback from the global development community.

Trade Shocks, Population Growth, and Migration

“…More broadly, my analysis relates to the literature on heterogeneous migratory responses to local labor market conditions based on workers' skills (Greenland et al, 2019;Notowidigdo, 2020;Utar, 2018;Cadena and Kovak, 2016;Bound and Holzer, 2000), the relative importance of regional mobility compared to sectoral mobility given adjustment costs (Dix-Carneiro and Kovak, 2017;Bartik, 2018;Autor et al, 2014), and the relative importance of out-migration compared to in-migration (Monras, 2018). Finally, this paper also relates to the extensive literature examining the effect of trade liberalization on labor market outcomes in the last two decades (Topalova, 2010;McCaig, 2011;Kovak, 2013;Autor et al, 2013Autor et al, , 2014Dix-Carneiro, 2014;Acemoglu et al, 2016;Pierce and Schott, 2016), as well as an array of socio-economic outcomes such as education and child labor (Edmonds et al, 2009(Edmonds et al, , 2010, marriage and fertility (Autor et al, 2015(Autor et al, , 2019, health and mortality (Fernández Guerrico, 2021;Adda and Fawaz, 2020;Pierce and Schott, 2020) and crime (Dell et al, 2019;Khanna et al, 2019;Dix-Carneiro et al, 2018). 5 Here, using a similar identification strategy, I provide an insight into the direct effects of PNTR on Mexican exports to the U.S. and the impact on manufacturing employment as a possible mechanism that induced migratory responses.…”

Crime, Inequality and Subsidized Housing: Evidence from South Africa

“…Other researchers have investigated low wages and unemployment as inducements to a life of crime (Raphael and Winter-Ebmer, 2001;Gould et al, 2002;Machin and Meghir, 2004;Fougère et al, 2009;Bell et al, 2018;Khanna et al, 2019;Hémet, 2020). A number of studies also estimate the effects of inequality on crime incidence.…”

Gang rule: Understanding and Countering Criminal Governance

“…This literature began with studies of the origins, internal organization, and incentives of these illegal firms and primitive states (Schelling, 1971;Fiorentini and Peltzman, 1997;Konrad and Skaperdas, 1998). More recently, there has been a surge of interest in international organized crime, including the personnel economics and career paths of gang members (Khanna et al, 2019;Sviatschi, 2018;Carvalho and Soares, 2016); studies of market structure and the production of violence (Castillo and Kronick, 2020;Brown et al, 2020;Bueno de Mesquita, 2020); the effects of exogenous supply and demand shocks on competition and violence levels Dube et al, 2016;Sobrino, 2019;Limodio, 2018); and the historical origins of drug cartels (Murphy and Rossi, 2020). There are also parallels between gangs strategically increasing rule in response to state presence, and a political economy literature on how organized criminals influence elections (De Feo and De Luca, 2017;Alesina et al, 2019;Dal Bó et al, 2006;Acemoglu et al, 2020).…”