Formal and informal scenario-planning in strategic decision-making: an assessment of corporate reasoning

Abstract

Purpose -The theoretical value of scenario-planning as a strategic tool is well recognized in literature. The research objective is to explore the corporate reasoning of formal and informal usage (or non-usage) of scenario-planning in strategic decision-making. Design/Methodology/Approach -An overview of the relevant literature on scenario-planning as a strategic decision-making tool in the context of complexity and uncertainty is presented, in combination with 15 case studies on executives in the South African context. Findings -The findings are based on a study in the emerging market context. From the case studies reported it is evident that industry, organizational and leadership related factors influence the effective use or non-use of scenario-planning. Research limitations/implications -Empirical findings are reported, contributing to an assessment framework to revisit the usage of formal and informal scenario-planning in strategic decision-making. Further research to determine which supportive tools and technologies should be used for scenario-planning across multiple contexts is needed. Practical implications -The study expands upon previous insights into the formal and informal usage (or non-usage) of scenario-planning in strategic decision-making based on an emerging market context. Originality/value -This study contributes to understanding the value of scenario-planning in complex contexts that require strategic adaptability, and offers a hands-on toolkit and shortlist of assessment criteria to conceptualize the organizational reasoning and scholarly framing of formal, informal or non-scenario planning in strategic decision-making.

The impact of artificial intelligence on event experiences: a scenario technique approach

“…First used in the 1960s by Hermann Kahn as a tool for business prognosis, its applicability is proclaimed to "virtually any situation in which a decision maker would like to imagine how the future might unfold" (Schoemaker 1995, p. 27). In the marketing field, futures methodologies have been recommended and adopted for strategic decision-making and leadership (Lew et al 2019), for innovation studies (Orazi and Cruz 2018), for tourism sustainable planning (Yeoman et al 2015), and most recently for mapping COVID-19 related risk and crisis management (Cankurtaran and Beverland 2020). Within an electronic marketing context, Rincon et al (2017) propose the scenario technique as a particularly valuable, yet sparingly adopted, method when it comes to understanding emerging technologies.…”

Decision-making in international marketing: past, present and future

“…reusing existing knowledge to improve judgement (Zhang et al, 2017), scenario planning (Lew et al, 2019), fault tree analysis (Liu and Tsai, 2016) and finally decision-making that is incremental, iterative and/or co-created (Yang and Gabrielsson, 2017). The cognitive decision-making principles (FvS) theme is rooted in behavioral economics.…”

On inquiry in futures and foresight science

“…This present piece is not the first to raise concerns regarding the level and role of inquiry in futures research (e.g., Hodgkinson & Wright, 2006; O’Keefe & Wright, 2010; Paroutis & Pettigrew, 2007; Piirainen & Gonzalez, 2015; Schoemaker, 2004; Whittington, 2006; Wright, Meadows, Tapinos, O’Brien, & Pyper, 2017). In a review of 50 year's worth of contributions to F&FS in the journal Technological Forecasting and Social Change , Gordon, Ramic, Rohrbeck, and Spaniol (2020) find that major developments in the field have primarily been driven by the need to improve decision‐making (see also Lew, Meyerowitz, & Svensson, 2019, on formal, informal, and even non‐use of scenarios to support decision‐making) 2…”