Forest Sector Impacts from Changes in Forest Productivity Under Climate Change

Joyce, Linda A.; Mills, John R.; Heath, Linda S.; McGuire, A. David; Haynes, Richard W.; Birdsey, Richard A.

doi:10.2307/2845973

Cited by 55 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Analyses of the implications of climate change for the forest sector have focused heavily on North America: Canada (Ohlson et al 2005;Van Damme 2008;Rayner et al 2013;) and the USA (Joyce et al 1995;Blate et al 2009;Kerhoulas et al 2013); and Europe (Karjalainen et al 2003;von Detten and Faber 2013). There has been a stronger consideration in recent years of social, institutional and policy issues (Ogden and Innes 2007b;Kalame et al 2011;Nkem et al 2010;Spies et al 2010;Somorin et al 2012) and the assessment of adaptive capacity in forest management organisations and in society more generally (Keskitalo 2008;Lindner et al 2010;Bele et al 2013a).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts and adaptation in forest management: a review

Keenan

2015

Annals of Forest Science

464

303

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Abstract& Key message Adaptation of forest management to climate change requires an understanding of the effects of climate on forests, industries and communities; prediction of how these effects might change over time; and incorporation of this knowledge into management decisions. This requires multiple forms of knowledge and new approaches to forest management decisions. Partnerships that integrate researchers from multiple disciplines with forest managers and local actors can build a shared understanding of future challenges and facilitate improved decision making in the face of climate change.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts and adaptation in forest management: a review

Keenan

2015

Annals of Forest Science

464

303

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“…However, demands and management choices on other ownerships should be a consideration in enhancing carbon benefits. A national-level forest futuring analysis that includes carbon outputs such as Heath and Birdsey (1993) and USEPA (2005), as well as climate change effects (Joyce et al 1995), and global trade ) would help ensure the major effects of large-scale processes are included.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Carbon stocks on forestland of the United States, with emphasis on USDA Forest Service ownership

et al. 2011

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Abstract. The U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service (USFS) manages one-fifth of the area of forestland in the United States. The Forest Service Roadmap for responding to climate change identified assessing and managing carbon stocks and change as a major element of its plan. This study presents methods and results of estimating current forest carbon stocks and change in the United States for public and private owners, consistent with the official 2010 U.S. greenhouse gas inventory, but with improved data sources for three states. Results are presented by National Forest System region, a major organizational management unit within the Forest Service, and by individual national forest. USFS forestland in the United States is estimated to contain an average of 192 Mg C/ha (megagrams carbon per hectare) on 60.4 million ha, for a total of 11,604 Tg C (teragrams C) in the year 2005. Privately-owned forestland averages 150 Mg C/ha on 173.8 million ha, with forestland of other public owners averaging 169 Mg C/ha on 43.1 million ha. In terms of change, private and USFS ownerships each sequester about a net 150 Tg CO 2 /yr, but an additional 92 Tg CO 2 /yr is stored in products from private harvests compared to about 3 Tg CO 2 /yr from harvest on USFS land. Emissions from other disturbances such as fires, as well as corresponding area estimates of disturbance are also important, but the needed datasets are not yet available. Recommendations are given for improving the estimates.

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“…Second, the economic results are sensitive to potential dieback effects. Some authors have chosen to ignore potential dieback, or to model dieback by linking modeled yield changes to net changes in ecosystem productivity (Joyce et al 1995, Perez-Garcia et al 1997. Others have accounted for dieback as a direct stock effect Mendelsohn 1998, 2001;Sohngen et al 2001).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For the U.S., economic studies indicate that net surplus (consumers' plus producers' surplus) is likely to increase (Joyce et al 1995;Mendelsohn 1998, 2001;Shugart et al 2003). Consumers gain the most in the scenarios because forest growth is generally expected to increase over the next century, resulting in more timber being available for markets.…”

Section: Review Of Market Impact Studies In North Americamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of climate change on forest product markets: Implications for North American producers

Sohngen

Sedjo

2005

The Forestry Chronicle

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This paper examines potential climate change impacts in North American timber markets. The results indicate that climate change could increase productivity in forests in North America, increase productivity in forests globally, and reduce timber prices. North American consumers generally will gain from the potential changes, but producers could lose welfare. If dieback resulting from additional forest fires, increased pest infestation, or storm damage increases appreciably and has market effects, consumers will gain less and producers will lose more than if climate change simply increases the annual flow of timber products by raising forest productivity. Annual producers' surplus losses from climate change in the North American timber sector are estimated to range from $1.4 -$2.1 billion per year on average over the next century, with the higher number resulting from potential large-scale dieback. Within North America, existing studies suggest that producers in northern regions are less susceptible to climate change impacts than producers in southern regions because many climate and ecological models suggest that climates become dryer in the U.S. South.Key words: climate change, impact analysis, timber markets, forest ecosystems RÉSUMÉ Cet article examine les effets potentiels associés aux changements climatiques sur les marchés du bois en Amérique du Nord. Les résultats démontrent que les changements climatiques pourraient accroître la productivité des forêts de l'Amérique du Nord, accroître la productivité des forêts à l'échelle mondiale et réduire les prix de la matière ligneuse. Les consommateurs nord-américains bénéficieront en général des changements potentiels, mais les producteurs pourraient encourir des pertes. Suite à la mortalité découlant des feux de forêts plus nombreux, de l'accroissement des infestations de ravageurs ou des dégâts provoqués par des tempêtes augmentant de façon appréciable, les consommateurs connaîtrons moins de bénéfices et les producteurs verront leurs pertes s'accroître si les changements climatiques accroissent simplement le volume annuel de produits forestiers suite à l'accroissement de la productivité. Les pertes annuelles pour les producteurs sont estimées être en 1,4 à 2,1 milliards de dollars par années au cours du prochain siècle, le montant supérieur résultant d'une forte mortalité à grande échelle. En Amérique du Nord, les études laissent entendre que les producteurs des régions nordiques connaîtront moins d'effets suite aux changements climatiques que les producteurs du sud parce que plusieurs modèles climatiques et écologiques suggèrent que le climat deviendra plus sec dans le sud des États-Unis.

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Forest Sector Impacts from Changes in Forest Productivity Under Climate Change

Cited by 55 publications

References 25 publications

Climate change impacts and adaptation in forest management: a review

Climate change impacts and adaptation in forest management: a review

Carbon stocks on forestland of the United States, with emphasis on USDA Forest Service ownership

Impacts of climate change on forest product markets: Implications for North American producers

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