Forest responses to last‐millennium hydroclimate variability are governed by spatial variations in ecosystem sensitivity

Rollinson, Christine R.; Dawson, Andria; Raiho, Ann; Williams, John W.; Dietze, Michael C.; Hickler, Thomas; Jackson, Stephen T.; McLachlan, J. S.; Moore, D. J.; Poulter, Benjamin; Quaife, Tristan; Steinkamp, Jörg; Trachsel, Mathias

doi:10.1111/ele.13667

Cited by 9 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 66 publications

(95 reference statements)

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“…This hinders our ability to evaluate forest responses to climate variability over longer temporal scales. However, an analysis using paleo reconstructions of climate and forest biomass and composition showed that processes consistent with what we found may have helped forests tolerate hydro-climate variability over the last millennium (Rollinson et al 2021).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 80%

Global forests are influenced by the legacies of past inter-annual temperature variability

Hansen

Schwartz

Williams

et al. 2022

Environ. Res.: Ecology

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Inter-annual climate variability (hereafter climate variability) is increasing in many forested regions due to climate change. This variability could have larger near-term impacts on forests than decadal shifts in mean climate, but how forests will respond remains poorly resolved, particularly at broad scales. Individual trees, and even forest communities, often have traits and ecological strategies—the legacies of exposure to past variable conditions—that confer tolerance to subsequent climate variability. However, whether local legacies also shape global forest responses is unknown. Our objective was to assess how past and current climate variability influences global forest productivity. We hypothesized that forests exposed to large climate variability in the past would better tolerate current climate variability than forests for which past climate was relatively stable. We used historical (1950–1969) and contemporary (2000–2019) temperature, precipitation, and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and the remotely sensed enhanced vegetation index (EVI) to quantify how historical and contemporary climate variability relate to patterns of contemporary forest productivity. Consistent with our hypothesis, forests exposed to large temperature variability in the past were more tolerant of contemporary temperature variability than forests where past temperatures were less variable. Forests were 19-fold times less sensitive to contemporary temperature variability where historical inter-annual temperature variability was 0.66 °C (two standard deviations) greater than the global average historical temperature variability. We also found that larger increases in temperature variability between the two study periods often eroded the tolerance conferred by the legacy effects of historical temperature variability. However, the hypothesis was not supported in the case of precipitation and VPD variability, potentially due to physiological tradeoffs inherent in how trees cope with dry conditions. We conclude that the sensitivity of forest productivity to imminent increases in temperature variability may be partially predictable based on the legacies of past conditions.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 80%

Global forests are influenced by the legacies of past inter-annual temperature variability

Hansen

Schwartz

Williams

et al. 2022

Environ. Res.: Ecology

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“…Other conifers MIPs (e.g., Dietze et al, 2011;Huntzinger et al, 2013;Richardson et al, 2012;Schaefer et al, 2012;Stoy et al, 2013;Wei et al, 2014) but also evaluate the forest structure, which is the key target of forest management operations. Likewise, we go beyond comparison of models to tree-ring reconstruction data to evaluate growth (e.g., Klesse et al, 2018;Rollinson et al, 2017Rollinson et al, , 2021 Huber et al, 2020). Low accuracy of BA among all models may be explained by simulated mortality reducing stand density below the observed stem numbers (Figure S9).…”

Section: Other Broadleavesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Accuracy, realism and general applicability of European forest models

Mahnken

Cailleret

Collalti

et al. 2022

Global Change Biology

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Forest models are widely used to assess the impacts of changing environmental conditions such as climate, atmospheric CO 2 concentration and nitrogen deposition on forest functioning, dynamics and structure (e.g., Reyer et al., 2013). Yet, because of our incomplete understanding of forest ecosystems and computational constraints, these models differ in the way specific processes are represented, leading to differences in their predictions (Bugmann et al., 2019;Collalti et al., 2019;Huber et al., 2021). Hence, models need to be comprehensively evaluated using different data types at different spatio-temporal scales before we can judge their structural uncertainties and suitability for answering specific questions (Marechaux et al., 2021;Oberpriller et al., 2021).Model simulations need to be in adequate agreement with independent observations. Moreover, models have to be sensitive to environmental drivers to ensure that system responses are realistically predicted under a wide range of environmental and climatic

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“…The forest ecosystem is one of the main ecosystems of the earth, which plays an important role in maintaining the stability of the biosphere and improving the ecological environment [ 22 , 23 , 24 ]. Microorganisms, such as bacteria and fungi, are highly sensitive to environmental changes; thus, they are often used as biological indicator species to evaluate interference, natural succession, ecological restoration, and forestry environmental management in the forest ecosystem.…”

Section: Microbial Indicators In Natural Ecosystemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of Microbial Indicators in Ecological Systems

Wang

Zhang

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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Indicators can monitor ecological environment changes and help maintain ecological balance. Bioindicators are divided into animal, plant, and microbial indicators, of which animal and plant indicators have previously been the most researched, but microbial indicators have drawn attention recently owing to their high sensitivity to the environment and their potential for use in monitoring environmental changes. To date, reviews of studies of animals and plants as indicator species have frequently been conducted, but reviews of research on microorganisms as indicator species have been rare. In this review, we summarize and analyze studies using microorganisms as indicator species in a variety of ecosystems, such as forests, deserts, aquatic and plateau ecosystems, and artificial ecosystems, which are contained in wetlands, farmlands, and mining ecosystems. This review provides useful information for the further use of microorganisms as indicators to reflect the changes in different environmental ecosystems.

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Forest responses to last‐millennium hydroclimate variability are governed by spatial variations in ecosystem sensitivity

Cited by 9 publications

References 66 publications

Global forests are influenced by the legacies of past inter-annual temperature variability

Global forests are influenced by the legacies of past inter-annual temperature variability

Accuracy, realism and general applicability of European forest models

Development of Microbial Indicators in Ecological Systems

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