Forest Fire Risk Assessment Based on Ecological and Economic Value - Take Yunnan Province as an Example

Abstract

1 Taking ecological and economic value of forest into consideration during forest fire risk assessment could provide a scientific reference for integrated risk governance. Machine learning was combined with event simulation to implement fire risk assessment based on ecological and economic value of Yunnan forest. From this study, we draw the following conclusions: (1) The forest fire susceptibility can effectively improve the simulated events allocation process. (2) Spatial variation of forest fire risk is caused by wildfire susceptibility, unit area and gross value of forest. This may further contribute to differentiated risk response planning. (3) Results of this paper could provide references for Yunnan forest fire insurance practice. Keywords: forest fire; risk assessment; wildfire susceptibility; ecological and economic value *通讯作者：wangming@bnu.edu.cn 摘要 将森林生态与经济价值加入林火风险评估中， 能够为 林火风险管理提供科学的依据。 本文选择云南为研究 区，将机器学习与事件仿真结合，实现了云南森林基 于生态与经济价值的火灾风险评估。 研究得到以下结 论：(1)林火敏感性能够有效改进林火仿真事件的 分配；(2)林火敏感性、森林单元面积、森林总价 值共同作用导致了林火风险的空间分异， 分析三方面 因素的作用，有助于差异化林火风险应对方案的制 定；(3)文章结果能够为云南森林火灾保险实践提 供参考和借鉴。 关键词：森林火灾；风险评估；森林火灾敏感性；生 态与经济价值 1. 引言 森林是陆地生态系统的主体， 其多样的生态功能 为人类生存发展提供了环境保障。 林业产业是规模最 大的绿色经济体， 能够在社会经济发展中提供多种用 途的林木、林果产品、休闲场所等。森林火灾是森林 三大自然灾害之首， 林火灾害发生将为林业产业带来 巨大的经济损失并严重破坏森林生态系统的生态服 务功能。近些年受到人类活动、厄尔尼诺现象频发等 2016RA2104.indd 939 29/09/16 3:29 PM