Foresight of the development of rural tourism in Ukraine in the post-war period

Abstract

Purpose. The purpose of this study is to develop alternative scenarios for the development of rural tourism through the foresight methodology. Methodology / approach. Theoretical interpretations were formed by general scientific methods and approaches. To assess the prospects for the development of revitalisation of rural tourism, the method of scanning the horizon was used, which demonstrated the main tendencies and trends of the market and consumer tourism needs. Empirical methods made it possible to work out the stressors of systemic national crises, the global COVID pandemic, a full-scale war, which threaten the subjects of rural tourism with extraordinary losses and critical destruction of the material and technical base, losses of tourist interest – that is, questioning the existence of business as a whole. Therefore, an important task today is to draw up foresight scenarios and tactics that will create modules of investment attractiveness and mechanisms for the rapid accumulation of financial, architectural and construction, infrastructural and social potentials for the recovery of the economy of territorial units and the country as a whole. Results. Since forecasting is based on three “whales” (actual state, business experience and prospects), the foresight methodology is represented by tools with appropriate characteristics and management competencies. Therefore, in order to avoid complications and contradictions in the foresight of rural tourism, it is suggested to think over and install profiles of investment proposals, foresight scenarios for realising the possibilities of its restoration. Reasoned positions reflect the relevance of foresight research for assessing future prospects and opportunities for the restoration of rural tourism in Ukraine. The results of the study shed light on opportunities for rural development and suggest interventions to create a fully sustainable ecosystem. The study provides actionable information for rural tourism actors, stakeholders and potential investors who can benefit from forecasting the prospects and expectations emerging in rural tourism in the post-war period. Originality / scientific novelty. The scientific value of the research lies in the evaluation of the prospects for the development of rural tourism as a direction of diversification of the agricultural economy of Ukraine in 2019–2023 and the post-war period. A model for forming the investment profile of a rural tourism subject is proposed for implementation. Practical value / implications. The practical value of the research lies in the fact that it can be used as a tool for building effective cooperation in the development of plans and programs aimed at partnership relations with rural communities of Ukraine, tourism subjects, estate owners, etc. The value of this study lies in the foresight of rural tourism development prospects, which determine the competitive advantage of rural areas, with an emphasis on a relatively new and controversial topic after the war in Ukraine, namely its positioning in the structure of the restorative mechanism of regional development and tourism.