Foresight Management of National Oil and Gas Industry Development

Abstract

Changes in modern technologies have led to a decrease in the role of oil and threaten the well-being of oil-exporting countries. The oil and gas industry is the leading one in the economy of Kazakhstan, and the future of the country depends on its development. The purpose of the presented research is to determine the long-term image of the future oil and gas industry and develop a strategy for the government and national companies in different spheres for actions in conditions of increasing uncertainty. The article presents the materials of an expert survey using the Delphi method (211 industry experts) and a group discussion during a foresight session (75 participants), in which the authors provided methodological support and practical participation. The top nine development trends have been identified, the majority of experts (about 90%) see the future of the industry as the development of unmanned production based on digital management and an increase in environmental requirements (85%). The author’s methodology is based on a pragmatic approach to conducting an industry technological foresight in the medium term. The visionary image of the development of the oil and gas industry is built on the basis of the possibilities of technological breakthroughs. The refined image was formed as a response to the challenges of the external environment on the principle of the “Most Advanced, Yet Acceptable”. The main characteristic of the future of the oil and gas industry in Kazakhstan is a deserted production, where the production process is fully automated and robotic. Risks of oil and gas industry development are critical for the entire economy of Kazakhstan, so plans based on industry foresight projections to prevent them are a national priority.

Environmental Sustainability in Cross-Border Energy Trade: the Case of the Kazakhstan – China Pipeline

“…Advancements in technology play a pivotal role in shaping the environmental sustainability of cross-border energy trade [17,18]. The researchers have explored the application of innovative technologies, such as leak detection systems and eco-friendly materials for pipelines, as means to reduce environmental risks [19,20,21]. Integrating such technologies into the infrastructure of the Kazakhstan-China pipeline could be instrumental in preventing and addressing potential environmental incidents [22,23].…”

Communication strategies for effective CSR and stakeholder engagement in the oil & gas industry: A conceptual analysis

“…Companies also started to report on their CSR initiatives and performance, enhancing accountability and trust (Basile, Capobianco & Vona, 2021, Bricout, et. al., 2022, Petrenko, Denisov & Metsik, 2022.…”

Identifying the Key Risk Factors of Oil and Gas Mega Construction Projects in Kazakhstan

“…On the other hand, human resource is also a vital segment in the oil production industry which is being ignored; improvement is required in the segment as this issue needs to be immediately solved as the share of unemployed foreign workers in the industry are increasing. In addition, there is a requirement for new qualifications for dealing with the transformed technological automation processes and informatization, for instance, managing logistical, technological, and financial activities (Petrenko, Denisov, & Metsik, 2022).…”

“…The need to focus on significant risk factors is essential because the evaluation takes time, money and effort; otherwise, it would adversely affect the construction processes. The traditional gas, oil, and other resource deposits are depleting and manufacturing companies are forced towards complex fields such as shale gas, deep water deposits, and oil sands; thus, the industries require specialists in Kazakhstan (Petrenko, Denisov & Metsik, 2022). The project would face challenges if risks are not appropriately handled and strategies are applied accordingly.…”