Foresight in designing sun-beach destinations

Abstract

h i g h l i g h t sForesight brings together key agents of change in order to develop future visions. Mass demand will experience a growing environmental consciousness. Tourism value chain will no longer be driven by demand, but by motivational centers. Airports will become more efficient, engaging and environmentally responsible. This method is user-friendly for decision makers and manageable for technicians. a r t i c l e i n f o b s t r a c tForesight tools have been less used than forecasting methods by tourism planners because they seem to provide little added value to the planning process. To overcome this biased perception, this paper shows the potential of foresight for dealing with tourism development issues burdened by complexity and uncertainty, as well as its capability to bring down analysis from global challenges to local and spatial implications. A model framework is presented to incorporate foresight studies into the process of planning and designing tourist destinations. The model facilitates a gradual transition from a narrative vision to the spatial design of a future destination. Stakeholders play a very important role in the proposed model, being involved throughout the process in identifying future trends, formulating visions and helping to design urban patterns. In order to facilitate stakeholders' involvement, various analytical and design tools are used to envision the future development of tourist destinations.

Strategic foresight for (coastal) urban tourism market complexity: The case of Bournemouth

“…Qualitative tools, such as foresight, is commonly used in strategic planning, both for establishing a common vision and to aid various policy-making bodies (Jemala, 2010), and helping spatial planning to be more holistic (Fernández-Güell & Collado, 2014). A particularly useful adjunct to tourism strategic planning is scenario-based planning, which is one of the most popular foresight tools (Gössling & Scott, 2012;Fernández-Güell &Collado, 2014).…”

“…A particularly useful adjunct to tourism strategic planning is scenario-based planning, which is one of the most popular foresight tools (Gössling & Scott, 2012;Fernández-Güell &Collado, 2014). In addition systems approaches (Page, 1995;Ritchie, 2003) need to be considered when analysing the future of the city by combining it with scenarios to ensure a more holistic strategic planning process.…”

Prospecting technologies for photovoltaic solar energy: Overview of its technical‐commercial viability

“…2 Forecasting is important for understanding technical emergence and applying this knowledge to take preventive action in research and development and in strategic management of the company. 25 22,23 Foresight is based on a rational and explicit methodology of qualitative modeling, allowing to combine existing knowledge with expert opinion through its interaction.…”

“…It is not yet a fast remedy for urgent problems, because it requires longterm analyses and expert networks that do not produce immediate results. 25…”

Factors influencing the choice of the Algarve region as a tourist destination: Does season matter?

“…The provision of health services is also offered as a feature in the off‐peak season to reduce seasonality, particularly in Portugal and Spain, giving resorts an additional way of emphasizing their appeal (Commission of the European Communities, ). However, other attributes of a tourism destination may be equally valued no matter the period of the visit, such as safety and security (Sönmez & Graefe, ), despite being identified as an attribute strongly influencing the choice of destination in peak season travel (Jang, ), especially for mass‐tourism Mediterranean destinations (Fernández‐Güell & Collado, ). Highlighting cultural and recreational attributes as features that can attract visitors is also increasingly identified as a way of sustaining the competitiveness of a tourism destination.…”