Forecasting World Output: The Rising Importance of Emerging Economies

Borin, Alessandro; Cristadoro, Riccardo; Golinelli, Roberto; Parigi, Giuseppe

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2030809

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Cited by 19 publications

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“…Not surprisingly, growth in the world"s most populous country has changed the distribution of economic activities across the world. Between 1990 and 2006, the share of Chinese GDP in the world economy, valued at purchasing-power-adjusted prices, increased from 3.6 percent to 11.5 percent (Borin et al, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

China in the World Economy: Dynamic Correlation Analysis of Business Cycles

Fidrmuc

Korhonen

Bátorová

2012

CESifo Economic Studies

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We analyse the business cycles in China and in selected OECD countries between 1992 and 2006. We show that, although negative correlation dominates for nearly all countries, we can also see large differences for various frequencies of cyclical developments. On the one hand, nearly all OECD countries show positive correlations of the very short-run developments that may correspond to intensive supplier linkages. On the other hand, business cycle frequencies (cycles with periods between 1.5 and 8 years) are typically negative. Nevertheless, countries facing a comparably longer history of intensive trading links tend to show also slightly higher correlations of business cycles with China.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%