“…Since I am dealing with hypothesis testing rather than with forecasting, it is not necessary to consider the question whether cvmometric models forecast better than naive models. For evidence on this, see Armstrong (1978b) and Zarnowitz (1979). .4ny superiority of econometric models need not result from their being an accurate representation of the economy, but could result from their picking up various autoregressive features of the economy, as well as from the ad hoc adjustments that the managers of models usually make to the raw output of their models.…”