Forecasting Winning Rates in Major League Baseball Based on Fuzzy Logic

Lee, Woo-Joo; Jhang, Hyo-Jin; Lee, Seo-Hee; Choi, Seunghoe

doi:10.5391/jkiis.2020.30.5.366

Cited by 1 publication

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“…Since Cincinnati Red Stockings, the first professional baseball team was founded in 1869, a number of baseball teams have been established, and 30 teams are currently in the MLB. The modern form of the major league began in 1901 with the birth of the American League (AL), and in 1903 the world series between the two champion teams took place for the first time [18,19]. In 1969, when the mound was lowered to 10 inches, the MLB was divided into western and eastern regions, and since 1994 the western, central, and eastern regions were reorganized.…”

Section: Datasetmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pythagorean Exponents Induced by Mathematical and Statistical Methods in the Major League Baseball

Lee¹,

Choi²

2022

IJFIS

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This study introduces two kinds of Pythagorean exponent and their applications. And we propose the mathematical and statistical analysis for them, and suggest they can be applied to sports data, which is related to the winning percentage. The first one is M pe which is obtained from mathematical analysis, and calculated based on a deterministic model. The second one is a S pe obtained from statistical analysis, and it is derived based on probabilistic model. For the application, we compare the two results using the records of teams participating in Major League Baseball (MLB) from 1901 to the present. The value of M pe calculated by the mathematical method is approximately 2.039 and the value of S pe inferred from the statistical method using the regression model of the winning percentage is 1.854. Furthermore, the value of M pe of the 16 teams which have participated in MLB since 1901 statistically varies depending on post season advances and actual winning percentage, and the sufficiency of the two results compared using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and correlation between the predicted and observed winning percentage.

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Section: Datasetmentioning

confidence: 99%