Forecasting Wheat Exports: Do Exchange Rates Matter?

Impact of commercial and investment activities in agriculture on local development

“…First research angle focuses on observing price-related factors, such as price incentives (Thiele, 2003) and policies (Dorosh & Salam, 2008;Fulginiti & Perrin, 1993). These research efforts adopt a macroeconomic perspective, analysing either international markets (Bessler & Babula, 1987 (Thiele, 2003). In this sense, authors observed investments (Cicea et al, 2010), subsidies (Ildikó et al, 2009) and employment (Tudor & Balint, 2006).…”

“…This is not surprising, since the development of commerce and agriculture has always been interlinked throughout history, even from the earliest civilizations. Thus, many authors focused their research on specific intersections of these two sectors, such as international trade (Bessler & Babula, 1987;Goldberg & Knetter, 1995;Kristjanson, 1967;Lin et al, 2003) between agricultural and processing sector (Savic et al, 2016), the main idea in this paper was to investigate how these sectors are connected through commercial activity, and how they influence municipal economic development in Serbia. This was examined through the influence of relevant non-price structural factors related to agricultural and processing sector on the ratio between agricultural product procurement and overall agricultural production.…”

“…The development and growth of agricultural and commercial sectors is co-dependent, especially for economies still going through transition. Extensive research into agrocommercial connections exists, focusing both on international aspect(Bessler & Babula, 1987;Goldberg & Knetter, 1995;Kristjanson, 1967;Lin et al, 2003), as well as national perspective (J. P Brown et al, 2014;Petrick & Weingarten, 2004;Tudor & Balint, 2006;Vukadinovic et al, 2017)…”

Canola and soybean oil price forecasts via neural networks

“…Further research Bessler 1982, 1984;Kling and Bessler 1985;Bessler 1990) determined that there exists limited space for accuracy improvements for hog price forecasts when changing from the ARIMA to models incorporating more information from the sows farrowing price. This empirical evidence is somewhat different for wheat, for whose prices it was determined that more information from the exchange rate series can benefit improving forecast accuracy obtained via the ARIMA (Bessler and Babula 1987). For canola prices, the ARIMA was also found to achieve decent forecasts (Sulewski et al 1994).…”

“…B Xiaojie Xu xxu6@ncsu.edu Yun Zhang yzhang43@ncsu.edu 1 North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA Researchers in econometrics have devoted significant amounts of efforts to accurate and stable commodity price forecasts. To achieve this goal, a large number of previous studies (Kling and Bessler 1985;Bessler 1982;Brandt and Bessler 1981, 1982, 1983, 1984Bessler and Chamberlain 1988;Xu and Zhang 2022i;McIntosh and Bessler 1988;Bessler and Brandt 1981;Bessler 1990;Bessler and Babula 1987;Xu 2014bXu , 2015aYang et al 2001;Bessler et al 2003;Bessler and Brandt 1992;Bessler and Hopkins 1986;Bessler 1987, 1990;Wang and Bessler 2004;Bessler and Kling 1986;Babula et al 2004;Awokuse and Yang 2003;Yang and Awokuse 2003;Yang and Leatham 1998;Yang et al 2021) have explored various types of (time series) econometric models and predictions from experts and commercial services. Common time series models in the literature for this forecast purpose include the auto-regressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA), vector auto-regressive model (VAR), vector error correction model (VECM), and different types of their variations.…”