Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions: Beyond the Failure Forecast Method

Kilburn, Christopher R. J.

doi:10.3389/feart.2018.00133

Cited by 39 publications

(71 citation statements)

References 77 publications

(154 reference statements)

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“…Along with the conduit overpressure, magma and conduit wall/plug permeability seem to be one of the most critical parameters that can help evaluate whether the shallow plumbing system is prone to failure and eruption (e.g., Voight, 1988;Kilburn, 2003Kilburn, , 2018Sparks, 2003;Hammer and Neuberg, 2009). Not only it governs the ability to withhold gas inside the conduit (e.g., Edmonds and Herd, 2007;Collinson and Neuberg, 2012), it also dictates the mechanical properties (or strength) of the conduit wall/plug and regulates conduit pressure (e.g., Heap and Wadsworth, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Real-time and in-situ assessment of conduit permeability through diverse long-period tremors beneath Aso volcano, Japan

Niu

Song

2020

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research

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Long-period signal (LPs, 0.2-2 s) and very long-period signal (VLP, 2-100 s) observed in the shallow volcanic plumbing system are typically repetitive and time-invariant in their location and source mechanism, offering in-situ probes of hot fluid transport over the eruption cycles. While the amplitude and activity of volcanictectonic earthquakes and LP events have been commonly used to infer overpressure within their source region, one missing link is an observable that may permit inference on the change in the permeability of the conduit plug/wall, which can regulate the degree of pressurization, affect the mechanical strength of the surrounding rock, and consequently the likelihood of an upcoming eruption. Here we show that during the 2011-2016 eruption cycle at Aso volcano in Japan, long-period tremor events, a VLP of~15 s period, with opposite waveform polarity can be systematically detected and categorized as pressurization and depressurization events in the same crack-like conduit. We suggest that, depending on the strength of the surrounding rock and the permeability of the crack-like conduit wall/plug, pressurization due to magmatic heat and vaporization is more likely to occur when a less permeable conduit plug/wall can effectively keep the gas inside the crack-like conduit. On the other hand, depressurization is prone to occur if the conduit wall/plug permeability is sufficiently high to allow gas to escape from the conduit. Considering the amplitude of LPT proportional to the conduit overpressure, contrasting energetics of these diverse LPT events allows us to define whether the conduit is prone to pressurization or depressurization, providing a framework to infer how the permeability of the conduit wall/plug may evolve over an eruption cycle.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Real-time and in-situ assessment of conduit permeability through diverse long-period tremors beneath Aso volcano, Japan

Niu

Song

2020

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research

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“…Although the mechanical behavior of materials in compressive stress fields has received most of the attention by the rock physics community in recent decades (e.g., Paterson and Wong, 2005), there is more investigation to be done into the tensile rock strength of volcanic materials, whose structural stability is commonly challenged by tensile stresses due to lack of confining and high pore pressure (Kilburn, 2018). The tensile strength of rocks is found to be ∼8% of the compressive strength (Jaeger et al, 2009;Perras and Diederichs, 2014), and can be as low as ∼4% (Zorn et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolution of Mechanical Properties of Lava Dome Rocks Across the 1995–2010 Eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat

et al. 2019

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Lava dome collapses pose a hazard to surrounding populations, but equally represent important processes for deciphering the eruptive history of a volcano. Models examining lava dome instability rely on accurate physical and mechanical properties of volcanic rocks. Here we focus on determining the physical and mechanical properties of a suite of temporally-constrained rocks from different phases of the 1995-2010 eruption at Soufrière Hills volcano in Montserrat. We determine the uniaxial compressive strength, tensile strength, density, porosity, permeability, and Young's modulus using laboratory measurements, complemented by Schmidt hammer testing in the field. By viewing a snapshot of each phase, we find the highest tensile and compressive strengths in the samples attributed to Phase 4, corresponding to a lower permeability and an increasing proportion of isolated porosity. Samples from Phase 5 show lower compressive and tensile strengths, corresponding to the highest permeability and porosity of the tested materials. Overall, this demonstrates a reliance of mechanical properties primarily on porosity, however, a shift toward increasing prevalence of pore connectivity in weaker samples identified by microtextural analysis demonstrates that here pore connectivity also contributes to the strength and Young's Modulus, as well as controlling permeability. The range in UCS strengths are supported using Schmidt hammer field testing. We determine a narrow range in mineralogy across the sample suite, but identify a correlation between increasing crystallinity and increasing strength. We correlate these changes to residency-time in the growing lava dome during the eruption, where stronger rocks have undergone more crystallization. In addition, subsequent recrystallization of silica polymorphs from the glass phase may further strengthen the material. We suggest the variation in physical and mechanical rock properties shown within the Soufrière Hills eruptive products be included in future structural stability models of the remaining oversteepened dome on Montserrat, and that consideration of rock heterogeneity and its temporal variation if possible, be made in other, similar systems.

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“…In this regime, no further strain can be accommodated elastically, and all new stain is entirely accommodated by movement on faults. In some instances, a period of steady inelastic seismicity and strain rates may precede the transition to the hyperbolic regime (Kilburn, 2018). Accordingly, understanding how the differential stress increases with time is key to interpreting trends in uplift and seismicity rates.…”

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confidence: 99%

Uplift and Seismicity Driven by Magmatic Inflation at Sierra Negra Volcano, Galápagos Islands

et al. 2021

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Such signals can be the first indication of an approaching eruption, and their spatial and temporal patterns form the basis for short-term eruption forecasts (Sparks, 2003;Voight, 1988;White & McCausland, 2019). A simplified, reductionist, paradigm for the approach to volcanic eruption involves the progressive pressurization of a shallow magma reservoir until the excess pressure exceeds the tensile strength of the reservoir margins. At this point, the reservoir fails, and magma can ascend to the surface (Gudmundsson, 2012). Before reservoir failure occurs, the volcanic edifice deforms in response to the increased pressure, commonly resulting in surface uplift, and high-frequency volcano-tectonic (VT) seismicity where the differential stress exceeds the local brittle failure criteria. Consequently, in circumstances where this model is valid, spatio-temporal

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Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions: Beyond the Failure Forecast Method

Cited by 39 publications

References 77 publications

Real-time and in-situ assessment of conduit permeability through diverse long-period tremors beneath Aso volcano, Japan

Real-time and in-situ assessment of conduit permeability through diverse long-period tremors beneath Aso volcano, Japan

Evolution of Mechanical Properties of Lava Dome Rocks Across the 1995–2010 Eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat

Uplift and Seismicity Driven by Magmatic Inflation at Sierra Negra Volcano, Galápagos Islands

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