Forecasting volcanic ash dispersal and coeval resuspension during the April–May 2015 Calbuco eruption

Reckziegel, Florencia; Bustos, Emilce; Mingari, Leonardo; Báez, Walter; Villarosa, Gustavo; Folch, Arnau; Collini, Estela Ángela; Viramonte, J.; Romero, Jorge E.; Osores, Soledad

doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2016.04.033

Cited by 56 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 31 publications

(29 reference statements)

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“…Property owners self-managed clean-up. Community tolerance to ashy conditions will vary depending on local contextual factors such as the recurrence of tephra fall, environmental conditions (e.g., dry and windy conditions that exacerbate tephra remobilisation; Wilson et al 2011;Reckziegel et al 2016), socio-economic factors (e.g., reliance on tourism trade), environmental and public health standards, impacts to critical services, and the ability of property owners to self-manage clean-up . Response thresholds are best developed in collaboration with the community, with an understanding of the available balance of official and community resources .…”

Section: <1 MMmentioning

confidence: 99%

A model to assess tephra clean-up requirements in urban environments

et al. 2017

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Tephra falls can cause a range of impacts to communities by disrupting, contaminating and damaging buildings and infrastructure systems, as well as posing a potential health hazard. Coordinated clean-up operations minimise the impacts of tephra on social and economic activities. However, global experience suggests clean-up operations are one of the most challenging aspects of responding to and recovering from tephra falls in urban environments. Here, we present a method for modelling coordinated municipal-led (town/district level authorities) tephra clean-up operations to support pre-event response and recovery planning. The model estimates the volume of tephra to be removed, clean-up duration, and direct costs. The underpinning component of the model is a scalable clean-up response framework, which identifies and progressively includes more urban surfaces (e.g., roofs, and roads) requiring clean-up with increasing tephra thickness. To demonstrate model applicability, we present four clean-up scenarios for the city of Auckland, New Zealand: 1 mm and 10 mm distal tephra fall across the city, along with two local 'wet' eruption scenarios (low and high volume tephra deposition) from within the Auckland Volcanic Field. Depending on the modelled scenario, outputs suggest that coordinated clean-up operations in Auckland could require the removal of tens of thousands to millions of cubic metres of tephra. The cost of these operations are estimated to be NZ$0.6-1.1 million (US$0.4-0.7 million) for the 1 mm distal tephra scenario and NZ$13.4-25.6 million (US$9-17 million) for the 10 mm distal tephra scenario. Estimated clean-up costs of local eruptions range from tens of millions to hundreds of millions of dollars. All eruption scenarios indicate clean-up operations lasting weeks to months, but clean-up in some areas impacted by local eruptions could last for years. The model outputs are consistent with documented historic tephra clean-up operations. Although we use Auckland as a proof-of-concept example, the method may be adapted for any city exposed to a tephra hazard.

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Section: <1 MMmentioning

confidence: 99%

A model to assess tephra clean-up requirements in urban environments

et al. 2017

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“…Ash removal Johnston (1997), Barnard (2009) Etna ( AccuWeather (2015), Reckziegel et al (2016) Nat Hazards (2018) 92:381-413 385 precautionary approach of shutting systems down in the presence of ash (or in the event of forecasted ash), or a reactive approach if airborne ash causes problems for a surface transportation system. However, several contemporary ash dispersion and fallout forecasting models, which are outlined in detail by Scollo et al (2008) and Folch (2012), can provide outputs that include atmospheric concentrations and settling rates (e.g.…”

Section: Nearby State Highway Closed Three Times Diversionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Current developments in resuspension modelling (e.g. Folch et al 2014;Reckziegel et al 2016;Miwa et al 2018) will aid the future understanding of interactions between ash remobilisation and visibility effects. Our results are presently most reliable for road transportation where ground surfaces are wet and for maritime transportation, as atmospheric remobilisation will be minimal under these conditions.…”

Section: Key Limitations and Suggestions For Future Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Visibility in airborne volcanic ash: considerations for surface transportation using a laboratory-based method

2018

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All modes of surface transportation can be disrupted by visibility degradation caused by airborne volcanic ash. Despite much qualitative evidence of low visibility on roads following historical eruptions worldwide, there have been few detailed studies that have attempted to quantify relationships between visibility conditions and observed impacts on network functionality and safety. In the absence of detailed field observations, such gaps in knowledge can be filled by developing empirical datasets through laboratory investigations. Here, we use historical eruption data to estimate a plausible range of ashsettling rates and ash particle characteristics for Auckland city, New Zealand. We propose and implement a new experimental set-up in controlled laboratory conditions, which incorporates a dual-pass transmissometer and solid aerosol generator, to reproduce these ash-settling rates and calculate visual ranges through the associated airborne volcanic ash. Our findings demonstrate that visibility is most impaired for high ash-settling rates (i.e. [ 500 g m -2 h -1 ) and particle size is deemed the most influential ash characteristic for visual range. For the samples tested (all \ 320 lm particle diameter), visibility was restricted to * 1-2 m when ash settling was replicated for very high rates (i.e. * 4000 g m -2 h -1 ) and was especially low when ash particles were fine-grained, more irregular in shape and lighter in colour. Finally, we consider potential implications for disruption to surface transportation in Auckland through comparisons with existing research which investigates the consequences of visual range reduction for other atmospheric hazards such as fog. This includes discussing how our approach might be utilised in emergency and transport management planning. Finally, we summarise strategies available -018-3205-3 for the mitigation of visibility degradation in environments contaminated with volcanic ash.

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“…Recently, recurrent events of volcanic ash mobilized by wind in Patagonia caused multiple impacts on the environment for several months, such as severe deterioration of air quality and airport disruptions (Wilson et al, 2013), as a consequence of the volcanic eruptions of the Cordón Caulle volcanic complex in 2011 (Collini et al, 2013) and the Calbuco volcano in 2015 Reckziegel et al, 2016). These eruptions blanketed a vast area of Patagonia in Argentina with volcanic ash.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, studies focused on the performance of dispersion models simulating concentrations of windblown dust in South America are scarce (e.g., Johnson et al, 2010;Gaiero et al, 2013). For example, events of volcanic ash resuspension in Patagonia were recently simulated using the WRF-ARW/FALL3D modeling system with promising results (Folch et al, 2014;Reckziegel et al, 2016). Dust models simulate the main processes of the dust cycle: emission, transport, and deposition (Tegen, 2003).…”

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confidence: 99%

Numerical simulations of windblown dust over complex terrain: the Fiambalá Basin episode in June 2015

et al. 2017

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Abstract. On 13 June 2015, the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) warned the Buenos Aires VAAC about a possible volcanic eruption from the Nevados Ojos del Salado volcano (6879 m), located in the Andes mountain range on the border between Chile and Argentina. A volcanic ash cloud was detected by the SEVIRI instrument on board the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellites from 14:00 UTC on 13 June.In this paper, we provide the first comprehensive description of this event through observations and numerical simulations. Our results support the hypothesis that the phenomenon was caused by wind remobilization of ancient pyroclastic deposits (ca. 4.5 ka Cerro Blanco eruption) from the Bolsón de Fiambalá (Fiambalá Basin) in northwestern Argentina. We have investigated the spatiotemporal distribution of aerosols and the emission process over complex terrain to gain insight into the key role played by the orography and the condition that triggered the long-range transport episode.Numerical simulations of windblown dust were performed using the ARW (Advanced Research WRF) core of the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model (WRF-ARW) and FALL3D modeling system with meteorological fields downscaled to a spatial resolution of 2 km in order to resolve the complex orography of the area. Results indicate that favorable conditions to generate dust uplifting occurred in northern Fiambalá Basin, where orographic effects caused strong surface winds. According to short-range numerical simulations, dust particles were confined to near-ground layers around the emission areas. In contrast, dust aerosols were injected up to 5-6 km high in central and southern regions of the Fiambalá Basin, where intense ascending airflows are driven by horizontal convergence.Long-range transport numerical simulations were also performed to model the dust cloud spreading over northern Argentina. Results of simulated vertical particle column mass were compared with the MSG-SEVIRI retrieval product. We tested two numerical schemes: with the default configuration of the FALL3D model, we found difficulties to simulate transport through orographic barriers, whereas an alternative configuration, using a numerical scheme to more accurately compute the horizontal advection in abrupt terrains, substantially improved the model performance.

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Forecasting volcanic ash dispersal and coeval resuspension during the April–May 2015 Calbuco eruption

Abstract: Forecasting volcanic ash dispersal and coeval resuspension during the April-May 2015 Calbuco eruption F. Reckziegel (1) , E. Bustos (1) , L. Mingari (2,3) , W. Báez (1) , G. Villarosa (4) , A. Folch (5) , E. Collini (3,6) , J. Viramonte (1) , J. Romero (7,8) , S. Osores (2,3,9)

Cited by 56 publications

References 31 publications

A model to assess tephra clean-up requirements in urban environments

A model to assess tephra clean-up requirements in urban environments

Visibility in airborne volcanic ash: considerations for surface transportation using a laboratory-based method

Numerical simulations of windblown dust over complex terrain: the Fiambalá Basin episode in June 2015

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