Forecasting trends in hospitalisations due to drug poisoning in Semnan, Iran up to 2021: time series modelling

Abstract

No ghostwriting and guest authorship declared./Nie występują zjawiska ghostwriting i guest authorship.

Temporal Trend and Spatial Distribution of Drug Poisoning in Semnan Province: A Retrospective Longitudinal Study

“…The drug trafficking route in this province has provided easy access of people to drugs and alcohol in this region. Since international evidence shows that easy access to drugs plays key role in intentional drug poisoning (4), the trend of visits of drug addicts to hospitals in Semnan Province was increasing during the 2020s (8). Additionally, its mortality rate due to substance abuse is higher than the national average (7).…”

“…Additionally, its mortality rate due to substance abuse is higher than the national average (7). In case of a lack of proper planning and intervention, this trend is predictedto increase (8).…”

“…Accordingly, the present study examined the hypothesis that differences in the economic and social environments of the counties of Semnan Province could lead to differences in people's health-related behaviors. In recent years, Semnan Province has had a cumulative incidence rate higher than the national average in deaths from substance abuse (7) The results of one study examining the process of referral of drug addicts to hospitals in Semnan indicated that the referral process had an upward trend in the last decade (8). For proper preventive planning, we need to know how drug poisoning is distributed in different periods in a place to assess the effectiveness of environmental factors in increasing or decreasing the incidence of some drug poisoning.…”

“…Since, in the last decade, Iran has a significant increase in substances than in opioid derivatives, leading to an increase in the rate of poisoning and mortality owing to substance abuse in addition to their physical and psychiatric complications (9). In a study, which examined the process of referral of drug addicts to hospitals in Semnan, the results indicated that the referral process had been upward in recent years (8). For proper preventive planning, we need to know how drug poisoning are distributed in different periods in a place to assess the effectiveness of environmental factors in increasing or decreasing the incidence of some drug poisoning.…”