Forecasting the total energy consumption in Ghana using grey models

Abstract

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to forecast the future trend of Ghana’s total energy consumption (GTEC) using two grey models, which are GM(1,1) and the grey Verhulst model. Design/methodology/approach The paper employs the use of Even model GM(1,1) and the grey Verhulst model to forecast GTEC for the next five years. Since various models were used, the margin for error is minimal, hence resulting in a better choice for forecasting the future. The forecast reveals that the GTEC for the next five years will increase rapidly. Findings The results reveal that the models can be used accurately to predict the total energy consumption smoothly. This will aid the government of Ghana to take necessary measures such as transforming the economic development pattern and enhancing the energy utilization efficiency since future patterns of energy consumed can be predicted. Research limitations/implications This research is meaningful to the government and all stakeholders in Ghana to help develop and appreciate the energy sector and its economic impact. This research is going to help government put in measures for efficient utilization of energy since results reveal an increase in energy consumption. Practical implications Research results could be used for development of the energy sector through managerial and economic decision making. Originality/value Ghana is a developing country and has great prospects in terms of boosting or resourcing its energy sector to meet future demands. The successfully explored models could aid the government of Ghana to formulate policies in the energy sector and generate future consumption plans.

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