Forecasting the sunspot maximum through an analysis of geomagnetic activity

Kirov, B.; Asenovski, Simeon; Georgieva, K.; Обридко, В. Н.; Maris-Muntean, G.

doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2017.12.016

Cited by 19 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Until the Cycle 23 SSN was above average but for the Cycle 24 it is below average, reaching activity level closer to that in early 1900s but it has not reached minimum yet. Ahluwalia and Ygbuhay (2012) suggest that we may be at the advent of a Dalton-like minimum which lasted 40y, in agreement with some colleagues (Stozhkov et al, 2013;Steinhilber and Beer, 2013;Gkana and Zachilas, 2016;Kirov et al, 2018) but De Jager and Duhau (2012) state that no grand minimum is expected to occur in the 21st century, Lockwood (2010) opines there is only 8% chance of the Sun falling into a grand minimum in the next 40 years but Lockwood et al (2018) expect Dalton minimum to occur in 2050. Penn and Livingston (2010) suggest that SSNs for the Cycle 25 will peak at 7 (a steep decline in solar activity) leading to a Maunder-like minimum, compared to our prediction of a Dalton minimum.…”

Section: Ssn(v2)supporting

confidence: 77%

Holistic study of space weather and space climate: 1700- 2018

Ahluwalia¹

2019

Proceedings of 36th International Cosmic Ray Conference — PoS(ICRC2019)

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We present an update of changes in space weather/space climate at Earth orbit using sunspot number (SSN) timeline (1700-2018), geomagnetic indices aa/Ap (1870-2018), solar polar magnetic field (1976-2017), interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux (1963-2018) in the stratosphere at high latitudes. The Cycle 24 is close to minimum, expected in 2020. The baseline of aa index increases monotonically from 1900 to 1986 declining steeply afterwards, solar polar magnetic field decreases systematically for last three cycles (22-24) as do SSNs at cycle peaks. Livingston and Penn (2009) note a long term weakening of maximum magnetic field in sunspots since 1992. They expect SSNs for the Cycle 25 to peak at 7 (a steep decline in solar activity) leading to Maunder-like minimum, in contrast to prediction of a Dalton minimum by several colleagues. The North-South asymmetry in the solar polar field is pronounced for the decay phase of cycles 23, 24, itseems to change sign after the Cycle 21. GCR flux in the stratosphere is higher than in 1965 and increasing, pointing to an enhanced radiation exposure in future for passengers on transpolar flights, the astronauts on the space station as well as those travelling to and staying on the Moon and the Mars on prolonged missions; the assets in space would have to be hardened for safety from enhanced radiation.

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Section: Ssn(v2)supporting

confidence: 77%

Holistic study of space weather and space climate: 1700- 2018

Ahluwalia¹

2019

Proceedings of 36th International Cosmic Ray Conference — PoS(ICRC2019)

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“…It is, thus, seen that the prediction using the SSN V1.0 observations indicate a cycle 25 similar to cycle 24 which had a SSN max of 81.9. The two other predictions, using SSN V1.0 observations, made by Kakad et al (2017) and Kirov et al (2018), have been indicated by the colored horizontal lines in Figure 5a, that claimed too a cycle 25 similar to cycle 24.…”

Section: 1029/2019ja027508mentioning

confidence: 77%

“…This unusual behavior has drawn the attention of researchers worldwide who have attempted to predict the amplitude of solar cycle 25 (Bhowmik & Nandy, 2018;Cameron et al, 2016;Gopalswamy et al, 2018;Hathaway & Upton, 2016;Iijima et al, 2017;Janardhan et al, 2015;Jiang et al, 2018;Kakad et al, 2017;Kirov et al, 2018;Macario-Rojas et al, 2018;Pesnell & Schatten, 2018;Petrovay et al, 2018;Sarp et al, 2018;Upton & Hathaway, 2014, 2018. The different estimates of SSN in V1.0 and V2.0 for the amplitude of cycle 25 by different researchers along with the ratio of peak SSN of cycle 25 to cycle 24 are summarized in Table 1.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The different estimates of SSN in V1.0 and V2.0 for the amplitude of cycle 25 by different researchers along with the ratio of peak SSN of cycle 25 to cycle 24 are summarized in Table 1. It is to be, however, noted from Table 1 that the solar cycle 25 predictions made prior to 2017, except that for Kirov et al (2018), usually used the unrevised SSN observations, referred to henceforth as SSN V1.0, while the solar cycle 25 predictions made after 2017 mostly used the SSN V2.0 observations. It must be clarified here that as of July 2015 a revised and updated list of the (Wolf) sunspot numbers has been adopted, referred to as SSN V2.0 (Clette & Lefèvre, 2016;Cliver, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Another Mini Solar Maximum in the Offing: A Prediction for the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25

Janardhan

Ananthakrishnan

2020

JGR Space Physics

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We examine the temporal changes in both solar polar magnetic field (PMF) at latitudes ≥45° and heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) at 1 AU during solar cycles 21–24 with emphasis on the recent activity changes after July 2015, the so called “mini solar maximum” of cycle 24. While unsigned PMF shows solar cycle modulations in cycles 21 and 22, it shows an anti‐correlation with solar cycle variation in cycle 24. In addition, the floor level of the HMF (of 4.6 nT), that is, the value that the HMF returns to at each solar minimum, is breached about 2 years prior to cycle 24 minimum, indicating a reduced HMF floor level of 3.2 ± 0.5 nT in the upcoming cycle 24 minimum. In light of the change of unsigned PMF and the availability of a revised smoothed sunspot number (SSN V2.0) after July 2015, we revisit the correlation of unsigned PMF and HMF at solar minimum. The correlation is used to estimate values of the HMF at the cycle 24 minimum and the amplitude of the upcoming cycle 25. The updated prediction is 134 ± 11 or 131 ± 11 on the revised SSN V2.0 scale assuming the cycle 24 minimum to occur in 2020 or 2021, respectively. The SSN values indicate that the cycle 25 will be stronger than cycle 24 and a little weaker than cycle 23, even if the current solar cycle minimum occurs in 2021 instead of 2020. This implies that we will witness another mini solar maximum in the upcoming cycle 25.

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“…Based on the empirical correlation between the dipole moment during solar minimum and the strength of the subsequent cycle, Cameron et al (2016) suggest that Cycle 25 will be of moderate amplitude, not much higher than cycle 24. Kirov et al (2018) show that both the maximum sunspot number of a solar cycle and the minimum of geomagnetic activity preceding it can be predicted from the maximum value of the solar dipole magnetic field of the previous cycle which is observed well before the sunspot minimum. They estimated that the minimum geomagnetic activity between cycles 24 and 25 as quantified by the geomagnetic ap-index will be about 5, and the maximum sunspot number for cycle 25 about 50-55 (V1).…”

Section: Project See: Solar Evolution and Extremamentioning

confidence: 90%

A review of the SCOSTEP’s 5-year scientific program VarSITI—Variability of the Sun and Its Terrestrial Impact

Shiokawa

Georgieva

2021

Prog Earth Planet Sci

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The Sun is a variable active-dynamo star, emitting radiation in all wavelengths and solar-wind plasma to the interplanetary space. The Earth is immersed in this radiation and solar wind, showing various responses in geospace and atmosphere. This Sun–Earth connection variates in time scales from milli-seconds to millennia and beyond. The solar activity, which has a ~11-year periodicity, is gradually declining in recent three solar cycles, suggesting a possibility of a grand minimum in near future. VarSITI—variability of the Sun and its terrestrial impact—was the 5-year program of the scientific committee on solar-terrestrial physics (SCOSTEP) in 2014–2018, focusing on this variability of the Sun and its consequences on the Earth. This paper reviews some background of SCOSTEP and its past programs, achievements of the 5-year VarSITI program, and remaining outstanding questions after VarSITI.

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Forecasting the sunspot maximum through an analysis of geomagnetic activity

Cited by 19 publications

References 39 publications

Holistic study of space weather and space climate: 1700- 2018

Holistic study of space weather and space climate: 1700- 2018

Another Mini Solar Maximum in the Offing: A Prediction for the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25

A review of the SCOSTEP’s 5-year scientific program VarSITI—Variability of the Sun and Its Terrestrial Impact

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