Forecasting the start and severity of the hay fever season

Abstract

Summary Since the season of summer hay fever may last only 4 weeks and rainfall may produce days with virtually no airborne pollen, the timing of clinical trials is important. To facilitate this a method of forecasting the first possible 100% symptom day, and the severity of the season in terms of light, moderate or severe, is presented. The forecast is based on temperature in April and May, and formulae tested by reference to records of grass pollen concentrations over Central London during 1961–70.

Airborne Pollen Records in Denmark, 1977–1986

“…Statistical relations between the mean monthly temperatures for April and May and the start and intensity of the grass pollen season the same year were found by Davies & Smith (1973) Tables I1 and I11 indicate that the total yearly sum of the mean daily concentrations of grass pollen is correlated with the mean temperature for hlay, e.g. a certain period before the main season, but rather independent of the average temperature conditions during the main season itself (June and July).…”

Grass pollen in the atmosphere of Melbourne: Seasonal distribution over nine years

“…1 and Table 11). Daily grass pollen values for London have been grouped into two classes: (1) below 50 grains m-3, (2) over 50 grains mm3 (Davies & Smith 1973). The latter indicates days when all sensitive humans experienced allergic symptoms.…”

Pollens, pollinoses et météorologie

“…Les graminées ont surtout fait l'objet de recherches en Angleterre (Davies et Smith, 1973), en Irlande (Dowding, 1988) et aux Pays-Bas (Spieksma et Den Tonkelaar, 1986). …”